What can bettors learn from past delays, shortened seasons?

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There's clearly no precedent for a work stoppage like what we've seen as a result of the coronavirus, and bettors trying to find one will be disappointed. Still, when the sports world returns to "normal," teams will deal with some of the same issues that we've seen after previous stoppages - limited practice time, shortened seasons, and more schedule-related adversities.

For bettors seeking an edge when leagues resume play, could there be something to learn from past delays?

To find out, we studied every strike, lockout, and other work stoppages over the last 30 years that either shortened the offseason or delayed the start of the schedule. We left out brief midseason interruptions or delays that resulted in canceled postseasons, as those don't help us find an edge in upcoming betting markets.

Here are the six seasons that guided our research and impressions on how this unprecedented delay can guide bettors when major sports leagues eventually return:

Work stoppage	Season affected	Games missed	Champion
NHL lockout	1994-95	34	New Jersey Devils
MLB strike	1995	18	Atlanta Braves
NBA lockout	1998-99	32	San Antonio Spurs
NFL lockout	2011	0	New York Giants
NBA lockout	2011-12	16	Miami Heat
NHL lockout	2012-13	34	Chicago Blackhawks

Bet the favorites

It may seem obvious, but it's by far the strongest trend from the sampled seasons - the best teams win in adverse conditions, often in convincing fashion.

The eventual champion entered the year as one of the top five favorites in five of the six seasons. Only the 2011 New York Giants (+2200) defied the odds, and they had to beat the preseason favorite New England Patriots (+500) in the Super Bowl and the second-favorite Green Bay Packers (+650) in the divisional round during an improbable playoff run.

Some of the most dominant performances in recent memory have come after a shortened offseason, particularly early in the year.

Those 2011 Packers opened the year with 14 straight wins behind preseason MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers (+550). The 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks (+1200) began the season by playing 24 games without a regulation loss, setting an NHL record en route to a Stanley Cup. The 1995 Atlanta Braves (+400) remain tied for the third-shortest odds of any MLB champion since 1985, while the 2011-12 Miami Heat (+225) are tied among the third-shortest NBA favorites to win since 2002.

The betting favorites usually reach the postseason, too. In the NHL, teams with the best title odds comprised most of the playoff field in 1994-95 (14 of the 16 shortest title prices) and 2012-13 (11 of 13). It was a similar story in the NBA in 1998-99 (11 of 12) and 2011-12 (16 of 20), with all 10 of the shortest title favorites making the field in the latter year. This doesn't always occur in sports; the four listed seasons stand in contrast to the relative diversity by preseason odds in the 2018-19 NHL and NBA playoff fields.

So what does that mean for bettors if upcoming seasons or training camps are shortened? Expect dominance from likely title contenders, ride early winning streaks, and don't get too cute with your playoff fields. The best teams - and players - are likely to shine through uncertainty.

Bad teams rising

This is where things get interesting. While the best of the best tend to excel after a reduced offseason, the worst teams also seem to surprise relative to expectation.

Entering the 2011 NFL season, eight teams had title odds of 100-1 or longer. Six of those teams went over their preseason win totals and two of them made the playoffs. Compare that to 2018-19, when just four of the eight teams with comparable odds went over and only one reached the postseason.

We saw similar results in the two most recent lockouts: Five of the six worst teams by title odds went over in the NBA (2011-12), and eight of the 12 worst went over in the NHL (2012-13). It didn't always translate to a playoff berth, but it's worth betting high on some of oddsmakers' least favorite teams.

Interestingly, after each of the three work stoppages in the 2010s, there were more overs than unders among all teams' win totals - with many of them coming from the top and bottom crop of clubs. If you can't decide which middle-tier teams to ride, just bet high on the extremes using history as your compass.

Expect scoring lull

Previous work stoppages have taught us that offenses can have a tough time getting going.

In 1994-95, the NHL saw a significant drop in goals per game (2.99) after years of hovering around 3.5 or higher. The NBA's offensive rating in 1998-99 (102.2) still ranks as the lowest since 1978, and the league's rating in 2011-12 (104.6) is the worst since 2004.

We didn't see a dip in scoring after the NFL's 2011 lockout, but that could change this year if the summer schedule is affected. Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, said he expects totals could drop by 3-4 points if the NFL schedule is affected by delays. That could prove even more costly for offenses with new pieces in place, as we broke down on Thursday.

The market will likely catch up to this right away, so there may not be any value for bettors. But don't be afraid to fade offenses if totals seem a bit high to start the NFL, NBA, or NHL seasons after any potential delays, even with all three leagues trending up in scoring.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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