To prevent a second coronavirus wave, we need to look beyond the R number | Rowland Kao
Outbreaks don't follow a straightforward pattern. To minimise risk, we must limit mass gatherings and deploy proper testing
As the UK begins to ease lockdown restrictions, attention has turned to the prospect of a second wave of coronavirus cases. In Germany, where shops and restaurants have tentatively reopened, the reproduction number R has risen to 1.1. In Seoul, a recent outbreak of at least 170 infections has been linked to five bars and nightclubs. Even in South Korea, one of the most successful countries at controlling the virus, there's no room for complacency.
As a veterinary epidemiologist, I study how viruses spread between animals and animal populations. The principles of viral transmission are much the same in humans (indeed, many scientists work on both). The concept of a second wave in public health is often linked to factors outside of human control. This might include the birth of infants who are susceptible to a particular disease causing the wavelike patterns we see in childhood illnesses, or environmental factors that influence the seasonality of influenza. But for Covid-19, the anticipation of a second wave has more to do with actions within our control.
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