Patriots 2020 player props: Pump the brakes on Sony Michel

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If you're having a tough time projecting the New England Patriots' offense in 2020, I don't blame you.

Although the franchise has had a revolving door of players over the last two decades, the one constant throughout the dynasty had always been quarterback Tom Brady. With his departure to the Buccaneers in free agency, we're left scrambling, trying to figure out what we can expect from the new-look offense.

Here, we'll dive into the 2020 player prop bets, headlined by a couple of familiar faces.

Sony Michel O/U 7.5 rushing touchdowns

Over: -105
Under: -125

The Patriots rarely breed all-world, traditional running backs due to the system they run. Michel isn't going to carry a fantasy football team all by himself, but he's been a consistent contributor in a loaded New England backfield, posting back-to-back seasons with at least 900 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns.

But heading into 2020, we might want to pump the brakes on a player who recently made PFF's All-Average team.

Michel has had some serious trouble creating scoring opportunities for himself. Across two regular-season campaigns, nine of his 13 career rushing touchdowns have come inside the 5-yard line. Furthermore, his 1.6 yards per attempt inside the 20-yard line in 2019 was only worse than Leonard Fournette among qualified backs.

Needless to say, Michel's highlight reel from last season was far from a YouTube sensation.

Patriots strike first with a fairly easy touchdown run by Sony Michel #Jets pic.twitter.com/xNhCPUuRZ4

- Conor the Mick (@TheNJMick) September 22, 2019

Sony Michel with his SECOND touchdown of the night. Patriots making it look easy against the Chiefs right now.

(Via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/MH6uaLu4vW

- PFF (@PFF) October 15, 2018

I have a tough time buying a player who's not only coming off a campaign averaging 3.7 yards per carry, but who was also set up for so much success. Had New England not been a top-five team in red-zone trips per game over the last two seasons, Michel probably sees a dip in his scoring totals.

Without Brady, the Patriots won't have as many opportunities in close quarters to let Michel pick up the short-yardage gimmes.

Pick: Under

Julian Edelman O/U 6.5 touchdowns

Over: -105
Under: -125

Edelman's been just as good of a No. 1 receiver as he has been a security blanket for the offense. If Jarrett Stidham takes the reins in 2020, he has a go-to option right out of the gate. I have no doubt Edelman will get his stats in what could be more of a pass-happy unit this fall, but I can't get on board with the touchdown total.

Edelman had the greatest quarterback in NFL history for more than a decade. Still, the 34-year-old only surpassed six receiving touchdowns in the regular season just once.

Edelman was the fourth-most targeted receiver in the league in the red zone last year, scoring three of his six touchdowns inside the 8-yard line. Similar to the thought process behind Michel's prop bet, Edelman won't have the luxury of picking up easy touchdowns as he did with Brady in the fold.

Pick: Under

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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