Browns 2020 player props: Load up on OBJ stock

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On March 12, 2019, the Cleveland Browns traded for Odell Beckham Jr., adding the star wide receiver to an already loaded offense to take the AFC North by storm.

On November 3, 2019, the Browns owned a 2-6 record, crumbling beneath an attacking unit that ranked 26th in the league in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) offense.

To say the Browns underwhelmed in 2019 would be a disservice to those who appreciate the sport.

Despite assembling a video game-like unit, Cleveland saw its offensive DVOA somehow regress from No. 17 in the NFL in 2018 to No. 20 by the end of last season; the scoring dropped from 22.4 points per game to 20.9.

You may be reluctant to invest in an offense that probably cost you some money in 2019 - Cleveland covered just five of its 16 games - but this could be the best buy-low spot in the player prop market, especially when it comes to last year's trade chip.

Here's why Beckham is slated for a monster 2020 season.

Odell Beckham Jr. - O/U 1050.5 receiving yards

Over: -110
Under: -110

I'm arguably more excited to discuss OBJ than I am any other player in our 2020 prop series. Do you know how tough it is to pass on his props on an annual basis, strictly because his marketability and upside drain all his value? Beckham is rarely worth a buy in the betting markets; this is an opportunity to pounce.

In breaking down the odds for this season's leader in receiving yards, I actually highlighted Beckham as someone to avoid. The gap between Michael Thomas and the rest of the league is simply too wide, while Cleveland's offensive blueprint is heavily skewed toward keeping the ball on the ground.

But the Browns' running game is exactly what's going to help Beckham build on last year's 1,035-yard campaign and make you money on this season's total.

New head coach Kevin Stefanski built the Minnesota Vikings into a run-first offense with plenty of play-action on the back end. Despite ranking fourth in the league in run-play percentage in 2019, the Vikings finished the season with a higher ranking in DVOA passing offense (10th in the NFL) than they did in DVOA rushing offense (16th). They also boasted a 1,130-yard receiver in Stefon Diggs.

Cleveland's scheme won't be a secret. Stefanski's had the same, vanilla script for a while. But the Browns have the pieces to perfect it. Nick Chubb earned the highest PFF grade for running backs two years ago and led the offense in 2019. The offensive line also underwent some renovations this spring.

If the Browns can run the football successfully, Beckham is crushing this total.

Stefanski's play-calling paid dividends for Diggs, who finished fifth in the NFL in yards per catch last year. Beckham almost exclusively ran deep routes in 2019 - the second-most among all NFL wide receivers, in fact - yet he left a ton of production on the table.

Ian Hartitz of Yahoo Sports found that 73 players saw 10-plus targets on throws 20 or more yards down the field in 2019. Of those players, only 10 had a catchable deep ball rate of 30% or worse; Beckham was one of them.

OBJ wide open, Baker overthrows him. Not optimal.

- Daryl Ruiter (@RuiterWrongFAN) October 8, 2019

Bad start for the #Browns offense against the worst defense in the NFL. Beckham drops a pass and then Mayfield overthrows Beckham and gets picked by Patrick Peterson on the end zone. #Cardinals 7, #Browns 0 3:30 left first quarter.

- Jeff Schudel (@jsproinsider) December 15, 2019

There were obvious chemistry issues, missed opportunities, and bad luck - Beckham scored four touchdowns despite seeing a whopping 133 targets. He was one of 13 players in the league to have 75-plus targets yet register a touchdown rate of 3% or worse.

Beckham worked through those shortcomings, though, quietly crossing the 1,000-yard mark on 74 receptions. Just imagine what he could have done had he not owned a 30% catchable deep ball rate.

Given all the overthrows and missed connections, Beckham might have added at least another 100 yards with even average luck.

Beckham doesn't need much to build on last season's receiving total. With a new scheme that can open up the deep ball - and some better fortune - you can take this one to the bank.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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