Bengals 2020 player props: Don't overthink Burrow's TD total

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

I have a strange feeling the Cincinnati Bengals' offense could have a breakout 2020.

Unlike most of the NFL's other rebuilding clubs, the Bengals have the potential to be fun. Quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow heads to Cincinnati to revamp a lifeless franchise that still, somehow, has a boatload of offensive potential.

Here, we'll dive into the top Bengals player props for 2020.

Joe Burrow - O/U 22.5 passing touchdowns

I'm not exactly sure what Burrow's projected touchdown total was in his final season at LSU, but it's safe to say he crushed it. Burrow tossed 60 touchdowns en route to the Heisman. His total for the upcoming season is 22.5, which is a pretty fair number on the surface. But here's why I like the over.

Last season, 15 NFL quarterbacks posted at least 23 touchdown passes. Some of the names on the list - or in the vicinity - will surprise you.

Daniel Jones, who started only 12 games, amassed 24 touchdown passes; Ryan Tannehill recorded 22 in just 10 starts; even rookie Gardner Minshew, who piloted the league's No. 24 DVOA offense, put up 21 in 12 starts.

Upside's been the name of the game for Cincinnati. But despite a skill corps of A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and Auden Tate, among others, the Bengals have been stuck in the mud.

However, that skill corps gives Burrow an immediate foundation. The only question is when will it all come together?

Green just needs to stay healthy and play a full season, or close to it. Younger receivers like Boyd (25) and Tate (23) have to take on larger roles and perform more consistently, preferably when Cincinnati's not trailing by double digits. The Bengals also desperately need to see more of the 2018 version of Mixon (4.9 yards per carry, eight rushing touchdowns) instead of the 2019 model (4.1, five).

The schedule should do Burrow some favors. Despite drawing both Pittsburgh (No. 3 in DVOA defense last season) and Baltimore (No. 4) twice, Cincinnati faces 10 teams that were in the back half of the league in DVOA pass defense last year.

Regardless of whether the Bengals take the next step offensively or Burrow puts up his numbers during garbage time, this total's certainly worth a look.

Pick: Over

Auden Tate

There aren't any props available for Tate, but if they pop up at any time before the start of the season, he's an extremely underrated wide receiver to buy low on.

So far, we've highlighted some pass-catchers in our prop series who were unlucky in 2019, namely Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Gesicki, and Breshad Perriman. Tate isn't a household name - he caught 40 passes over 12 games last season - so it might surprise you to see him mentioned as a positive regression candidate.

He saw 80 targets in 2019, more than the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Le'Veon Bell. However, Cincinnati quarterbacks couldn't get the ball to him.

Tate owned a 46% uncatchable target rate, behind only Perriman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Essentially, almost half the balls thrown Tate's way in 2019 were deemed uncatchable. Fellow Bengals receiver Alex Erickson wasn't too far behind at 42%, which spoke volumes about the team's pressing need at quarterback.

Burrow could be the answer. Hopefully, his career starts with 23-plus touchdowns, with a couple thrown to Tate.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

Copyright (C) 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.