Transit in the age of COVID-19: Will you get back on the HSR bus?

Eric Tuck drove his Parkdale HSR bus route last month encased in a pandemic-proof plastic sneeze guard.

A version of the centimetre-thick, floor-to-ceiling bioshield" he tested is expected to play a big role in bringing back paid bus service in a city slowly emerging from COVID-19 lockdown. Aside from some glare" issues, the virus-blocking wall earned a thumbs-up from the 32-year veteran HSR operator.

Between the shields and the masks, I'm feeling confident we can keep our drivers safe as things start to open up," said Tuck, who is also the local transit union president.

Protecting drivers from COVID-19 infection is the first job for a deficit-plagued city transit agency hoping to restart front-door boarding - and fare collection - as soon as possible.

But other pandemic questions facing a post-lockdown Hamilton Street Railway are not so easily answered.

Like how do you make wary bus riders feel safe enough to get back on board? And who pays to keep buses rolling - even if they're two-thirds empty - when Hamilton is staring down a $60-million pandemic deficit?

The city is still working out the answers to those questions - but has already warned residents the pandemic has changed public transit potentially forever."

What we know so far: your next paid bus ride will look radically different.

For example, COVID-19 warning signage will be everywhere and some seats will remain off-limits to promote pandemic distancing - although we don't know exactly how many yet.

Drivers will be protected behind plastic shields and face masks. Cash fares and traditional paper transfers will be tricky, so expect contactless" payment options to be encouraged.

The city is also encouraging riders to wear non-medical masks - but the drivers' union and at least some riders are calling for such face coverings to be mandatory, as they are in Brampton and Ottawa. Hamilton health officials are looking at whether to follow suit.

Hamilton's staged COVID-19 reopening plan still calls for continued strict limits on the number of riders. For now, that remains 10 people on a regular bus, and 15 for a longer accordion bus.

But even when those passenger limits relax, expect the pandemic fallout to linger, Tuck said.

We will have to do some things differently from now on," he said. The way we used to pack people in like sardines, standing-room only? Those days are over. We can't go back."

Lower ridership

Right now, transit is historically and intentionally low.

When COVID-19 hit, Hamilton set passenger limits to ensure physical distancing, suspended front-door boarding and fare payment and begged riders to stay off the bus unless they were headed to work, the grocery store or the doctor.

The result in Hamilton was around a 75 per cent ridership drop - and about $7.3 million in lost fare revenue, so far.

Director Debbie Dalle Vedove said the HSR tallied an average of 120,000 weekday boardings before the pandemic. By mid-May, that dropped to around 30,000 boardings.

That's so low Tuck could rhyme off the destinations of each of the 15-or-so passengers who boarded the Parkdale bus each morning. They're all essential workers right now," he said.

That includes five workers who get off at Salerno Dairy and nearby Springer's Meats. Two at the Sobeys grocery store. Four at Jo Brant hospital in Burlington. Another four who work in retirement homes.

But soon, the city will start asking riders to get back on the bus.

The HSR has yet to set a date to resume fare payment, but don't expect a long wait - Grand River Transit in neighbouring Kitchener-Waterloo started accepting fares again June 1.

One ongoing study suggests many transit riders want to come back - but it won't happen overnight, said Matti Siemiatycki, a University of Toronto expert in transit and infrastructure planning.

There is a psychological dimension to this. How do we make people feel like transit is safe to return to?" he said, pointing to a University of Toronto study using targeted Facebook ads to poll pre-pandemic transit users.

Preliminary results published in May showed about 25 per cent of respondents who stopped taking the bus because of COVID-19 will stay away until a vaccine is found.

Experts warned at the start of the pandemic that a vaccine was likely 12 to 18 months away, at best.

Nearly 40 per cent of respondents without a car said they could avoid the bus for up to 18 months, if necessary. But most also said they would feel safer with passenger limits and widespread mask use.

Lisa Watson says she will not get back on the bus unless masks are made mandatory.

I just don't feel safe," said the regular transit user, who stopped taking the HSR in March after an unmasked passenger inadvertently sneezed on her while walking down the aisle.

I wear a mask to protect other people. It bothers me that not everyone is willing to extend the same protection to me. I don't understand why the HSR can't make it mandatory."

Watson, who is living on the east Mountain, does not have a driver's licence and has relied on the HSR for all of her 40 years living in Hamilton. Giving it up is more than a hassle."

It means she has temporarily stopped going to work because it is not within walking distance. It means she walked for about an hour" earlier this week to be with her distraught mother after a relative was rushed to hospital.

For now, Watson's only interaction with the HSR will be on Twitter - where she responds to every bus service update with the same suggestion: Make masks mandatory!"

Stephanie Collins, on the other hand, said she will keep taking the bus as long as it gets her to work.

The lower-city resident is a care worker at a retirement home on the Mountain, about 15 kilometres away from home.

I still need the bus. I can't walk it, I don't have a bike or car," she said in a Facebook exchange.

Collins already wears a mask about 12 hours out of every day" thanks to her health-care job. She is willing to brave the bus - but worried about whether the post-lockdown HSR can meet her needs.

In a frustrated online post last week, Collins described being unable to board a full" bus - one with the pandemic maximum of 10 people - one evening near her Mountain workplace. The less-frequent pandemic bus schedule meant she did not get home until after 9 p.m.

Higher costs

Transit advocates worry the pandemic funding crisis for cities means bus service will get worse, rather than better, even as COVID-19 recedes in the rear-view mirror.

That's because cash-strapped transit providers must either spend more to serve fewer riders or cut service.

Even as transit revs up again, Siemiatycki estimated pandemic precautions will force transit operators to limit the number of bodies on any one bus to somewhere between one-third and half of pre-COVID-19 capacity.

That means running more buses with fewer people if you want to maintain frequency on busy routes. Then factor in the cost of pandemic costs like bioshields" and deep cleaning" as well as anticipated lost revenue from fewer riders.

That's a big financial hit for any city, he said. It's called mass transit for a reason. It functions best when carrying large numbers of people."

That's why cities, business groups and transit advocates across the country, including in Hamilton, have teamed up to press the federal government for unprecedented bailout cash - up to $400 million a month, nationwide.

Without a bailout, we will lose bus service. That's just a fact," said Ian Borsuk, who co-ordinates Environment Hamilton's transit advocacy. We are facing the prospect of really serious cuts ... There are already municipalities out there making cuts."

So far, the HSR has not laid off any drivers or permanently reduced service.

But council is expected to debate this month whether to hit pause on its 10-year transit improvement strategy, which is supposed to beef up bus frequency this year to the tune of $4 million. A report on other ways to stem the financial bleeding was also requested this week.

The pandemic fallout for the HSR could leave many other important transit plans up in the air.

Think Hamilton's on-again, off-again light rail transit dream. Or the painstaking (Re) Envision HSR" study meant to guide route and bus frequency improvements. Or the debate over area-rated transit taxes.

So far, calls for a municipal bailout have been met with jurisdictional finger-pointing between the federal and provincial governments.

But Borsuk holds out hope the federal Liberal government will see the bailout request as an opportunity to push forward its national climate goals, which include promoting electric buses and mass transit. Help us make transit sustainable," he said.

The pandemic will force all levels of government to rethink" how transit is funded and planned, suggested Siemiatycki. Safety, frequency and reliability will still influence ridership - but so will societal changes like a COVID-19 recession, or work-from-home trends.

At the same time, not investing in post-pandemic transit means risking a rise in pollution, congestion and inequality within cities, he added.

For many, it's either going to be transit ... or they're going to find their way into a car," he said. The future of transit really hangs in the balance."

Matthew Van Dongen is a Hamilton-based reporter covering transportation for The Spectator. Reach him via email: mvandongen@thespec.com