Titans 2020 player props: A.J. Brown's TD total an easy bet

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The 2019 Tennessee Titans' offense was extremely efficient, but it wasn't easy getting there.

Looking to spark a unit that had scored seven points in three of their previous four games heading into Week 7, Tennessee pulled the plug on quarterback Marcus Mariota in favor of veteran Ryan Tannehill.

The decision ultimately saved the season.

Tennessee advanced to the AFC Championship Game behind a resurgent Tannehill, who posted an otherworldly 7.7% touchdown rate and 9.6 yards per attempt. The supporting cast was equally brilliant.

Running back Derrick Henry registered personal bests in virtually every category; receiver A.J. Brown crossed the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie.

A year after grading out as the No. 6 adjusted offense in the league, what do the Titans have for an encore this fall?

Today, we'll profile the 2020 offense as we continue our player prop series. Here's what sticks out.

A.J. Brown - O/U 7.5 receiving touchdowns

Over: -115
Under: -115

Although Brown finished third in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting behind Kyler Murray and Josh Jacobs, he made the best impression down the stretch.

Weeks	Targets	Catches	Yards	Touchdowns	100-Yard Games
1-8	34	22	348	3	1
9-17	50	30	703	5	4

Brown was no stranger to splash plays. He averaged 20.2 yards per catch, while five of his eight receiving touchdowns went for 30 or more yards.

Players who flirt with a ~10% touchdown rate are obvious regression candidates. CBS Sports' Heath Cummings also profiled the receiver - who put up a 9.5% clip in 2019 - as one in the fantasy football markets, noting that Brown would need 31 more targets than last season to match the 2019 total - and that's only if his touchdown rate dips to 7%.

Getting Brown north of 115 targets would be difficult, considering Tennessee's scheme.

The Titans were third in the league in run-play percentage last season. They were more efficient at running the football than throwing, yet were aided by huge plays through the air.

Between the lack of targets in a run-first offense and a looming dip in touchdown rate, this is an easy bet.

Pick: Under

Corey Davis

There aren't any props on the board for Davis, but you should be interested if they become available.

The first receiver off the board three years ago, Davis produced just 43 catches for 601 yards and two touchdowns in 2019. Last month, the Titans declined his fifth-year option.

But Davis' down year wasn't squarely on him.

Of the 73 players who had at least 10 targets for 20-plus yards down the field last year, only one had a catchable target rate worse than 19% - it was Davis ... at 0%. Not one of the 11 deep balls attempted to him was deemed catchable.

In fairness, he only has one way to go from here.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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