Can bettors trust Super Bowl favorites with new QBs?

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All it took was one acquisition to turn the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from NFC also-rans to Super Bowl contenders - or so says the betting market.

After winning seven games in 2019, the Bucs are 10-1 to win it all at theScore Bet - the fifth-shortest odds of any team - and are -230 to make the playoffs for the first time since 2007. The difference, of course, is Tom Brady, arguably the highest-profile free-agent signing in NFL history.

Tampa Bay has been in a similar position before. In 2001, it signed quarterback Brad Johnson as a premier free agent and entered the year with 6-1 odds to win the title, second-shortest of any team. The Buccaneers were ultimately blown out in the wild-card round after a disappointing 9-7 season.

Since 2000, five teams have signed or traded for a new Week 1 starter and entered the year with shorter than 15-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. All five finished below their preseason win total, and three of them missed the playoffs entirely.

Here's the full list of Super Bowl favorites (shorter than 15-1) this century to enter a season with a newly acquired QB:

YEAR	TEAM	QUARTERBACK	TITLE ODDS	RECORD
2020	Buccaneers	Tom Brady	+1000	N/A
2018	Vikings	Kirk Cousins	+1000	8-7-1
2015	Eagles	Sam Bradford	+800	7-9
2004	Redskins	Mark Brunell	+1300	6-10
2001	Ravens	Elvis Grbac	+800	10-6
2001	Buccaneers	Brad Johnson	+600	9-7

New QB, worse results

It may look like an uninspiring list of teams and quarterbacks in hindsight, but all five previous squads entered the year with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. And most of them compare favorably to this year's Buccaneers, who have little success to show for a loaded roster.

In 2001, the Ravens were coming off a dominant Super Bowl run and seemingly overhauled the quarterback position when they signed former Chiefs starter Elvis Grbac - a Pro Bowler in 2000 - to replace incumbent Trent Dilfer. Instead, Grbac's stats were even worse than Dilfer's, and Baltimore flamed out in the divisional round.

The 2004 Redskins and 2015 Eagles both made splashy trades for high-profile signal-callers who had lost their jobs at previous spots - Mark Brunell due to performance and Sam Bradford due to injury. Neither found success in their new homes, as the two NFC East squads posted losing records despite carrying title aspirations.

The 2018 Vikings were coming off a 13-win season behind journeyman Case Keenum, who led the club to the Super Bowl's doorstep. Despite a career year from Kirk Cousins, Minnesota fell well short of preseason expectations and missed the playoffs.

The five teams went a combined 40-39-1 with one playoff win and five "under" tickets cashed. That's not to say Brady and Co. can't go over their 9-win preseason total, but no team in recent history has pulled it off.

Hall of Fame credentials

Looking at the list of quarterbacks, it's easy to separate Brady from the bunch. And sure enough, if you widen the parameters a bit, there's some reason for optimism.

While no team shorter than 15-1 has capitalized on its preseason hype, a few teams with slightly longer odds turned out successful seasons behind new QBs:

YEAR	TEAM	QUARTERBACK	TITLE ODDS	RECORD
2012	Broncos	Peyton Manning	+1600	13-3
2009	Vikings	Brett Favre	+1600	12-4
2003	Broncos	Jake Plummer	+1500	10-6

These three teams all entered the year as mid-tier Super Bowl contenders. All three went over their preseason win total and made the playoffs, with the 2012 Broncos and '09 Vikings falling in overtime to that season's eventual Super Bowl champion.

Comparing Brady to Peyton Manning and Brett Favre might be more apt than comparing him to Cousins and Bradford, even if the latter two entered the year shorter Super Bowl odds. Still, no team in the last 20 years has acquired a new Week 1 starter and won the Super Bowl that same year, even with a future Hall of Famer at the helm.

None of the aforementioned teams had to deal with a - potentially - shortened offseason, either, which complicates the integration of a new QB. Despite the preseason hype, the Bucs would make history if they can pull off a Super Bowl run - which is something Brady is plenty familiar with.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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