Aaron Rodgers props: Take advantage of soft yards total
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Aaron Rodgers had a successful first season under new head coach Matt LaFleur. The future Hall of Famer threw for over 4,000 yards and led the Green Bay Packers to the NFC Championship Game. However, the team opted to select Rodgers' eventual replacement, Jordan Love, in the first round of the NFL draft instead of addressing more pressing offseason needs on offense.
Will age and the lack of offensive playmakers finally catch up to Rodgers? We break down his 2020 player props to find out.
Passing yards| Over | Under |
|---|---|
| 3899.5 (-112) | 3899.5 (-112) |
If you think this total is a bit low, you're probably right. Rodgers threw for 4,002 yards last season and has gone under this total only once in the 10 seasons where he's played at least 15 games. Assuming Rodgers plays all 16 contests this year, he would need to average 243.7 yards per game to hit the over. That's more than doable for a guy who has averaged 259.4 yards per contest throughout his career.
A lot was made about the Packers not bringing in help for Rodgers this offseason, and while that's a legitimate concern, he's proven over his career that he doesn't need a star supporting cast to put up big numbers. Green Bay is a Davante Adams injury away from Devin Funchess being its No. 1 receiver, but Rodgers - who once made Jeff Janis look like a superstar in a playoff game - can turn lemons into lemonade as well as any quarterback.
One negative here is the Packers ran the football more in 2019, and that trend will likely continue this season behind the trio of Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and rookie AJ Dillon. But even with an improved ground game, it's not like LaFleur abandoned the pass entirely. Rodgers still threw the ball 569 times, which averages out to a hefty 35.5 attempts per game.
There are some player props out there where the numbers seem a little soft. This is one of them. The Packers will always be a pass-first team with Rodgers, so look for him to record his ninth 4,000-plus-yard season and cash the over.
Pick: Over
Passing touchdowns| Over | Under |
|---|---|
| 25.5 (-112) | 25.5 (-112) |
While Rodgers' passing yards total is a little soft, this number is right on the money. The signal-caller used to soar over this total, but he's finished with 25 and 26 touchdown passes over the last two seasons, respectively. That's a steep decline from his career-best 40 touchdowns in 2016.
One reason for Rodgers' touchdown drop-off is his red-zone production. Throughout much of his career, Rodgers ranked near the top in red-zone attempts and touchdowns. That's changed the last two seasons, where he's averaged 69.5 attempts and 16 touchdowns in the red zone. From 2014-2016, Rodgers averaged 97.3 passes and 25 scores inside the 20-yard line.
Jones tied for the NFL lead with 16 rushing touchdowns last season. He and Williams combined for 61 red-zone rushes, which was two more than the NFL leader in that category, Ezekiel Elliott (59). Now, with the 245-pound Dillon also in the mix, you can expect the Packers to again rely less on Rodgers' arm near the goal line than the team did earlier in his career.
This number is sharp, so pass on Rodgers' touchdown total in favor of more enticing player props.
Pick: Pass
Most passing yards| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 |
| Matt Ryan | +700 |
| Dak Prescott | +800 |
| Drew Brees | +1000 |
| Russell Wilson | +1000 |
| Tom Brady | +1000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1200 |
| Philip Rivers | +1200 |
| Carson Wentz | +1800 |
| Jared Goff | +1800 |
| Kyler Murray | +1800 |
| Deshaun Watson | +2000 |
| Jameis Winston | +2000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +2500 |
| Kirk Cousins | +2500 |
| Lamar Jackson | +2500 |
| Matthew Stafford | +2500 |
Odds - courtesy of theScore Bet - listed for players +2500 and shorter
While I like Rodgers to go over his modest passing yards total, he's way overvalued here. The league's passing yards leader has topped 5,000 in each of the last two seasons and three of the last four. Rodgers has only eclipsed 4,500 yards once in his career, back in 2011 (4,643).
If you want to stump your friends in sports trivia, ask them which one of these quarterbacks has never led the NFL in passing yards: Steve Beuerlein, Daunte Culpepper, Matt Schaub, or Rodgers. The 36-year-old Rodgers has never accomplished the feat - which is a weird stat given his Hall of Fame career - and that won't change this season.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.
Copyright (C) 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.