Packers win total preview: Regression candidates with a juicy price
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The Green Bay Packers were the luckiest team in the NFL last season. That's not an opinion, just a fact.
Will Aaron Rodgers and Co. come crashing down to earth in 2020, or do just enough to get past their win total? Let's dive in.
| How many games will the Packers win in 2020? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 9 | +120 |
| Under 9 | -140 |
The Packers finished the regular season 13-3. They tied the Saints and 49ers for the best record in the NFC.
Green Bay may have passed the paper test, but it failed most of the advanced metrics.
If we compare actual wins versus estimated wins - which focus on DVOA and are weighted toward a league-average schedule - the Packers had the largest negative discrepancy in the league.
Biggest discrepancies in wins vs. expected wins| Team | Actual wins | Expected wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 13 | 9.9 | -3.1 |
| Texans | 10 | 7.3 | -2.7 |
| Bills | 10 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Dolphins | 5 | 3.1 | -1.9 |
| Panthers | 5 | 3.9 | -1.1 |
Winning three-plus more games than expected almost automatically classifies Green Bay as a regression candidate. But what if we take actual wins and stack them up against Pythagorean wins, which project a team's record using solely points scored versus points allowed?
Biggest discrepancies in wins vs. Pythagorean wins| Team | Actual wins | Pythagorean wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 13 | 9.8 | -3.2 |
| Seahawks | 11 | 8.2 | -2.8 |
| Saints | 13 | 10.9 | -2.1 |
| Raiders | 7 | 5.2 | -1.8 |
| Jets | 7 | 5.6 | -1.4 |
Still not ideal.
The Packers won 13 games and finished No. 10 in the league in average scoring margin per game (plus-2.8). Meanwhile, a team like the Dallas Cowboys outscored their opponents by more than a touchdown per game (7.1), yet won five fewer games than Green Bay.
The kicker? The Packers went a blistering 8-1 in one-score games in 2019.
OffenseGreen Bay graded out as the No. 8 DVOA offense in head coach Matt LaFleur's first season. Not too shabby.
Rodgers is still going to be a problem for opposing defenses, while the offensive line earned rave reviews from PFF, which graded the unit as the fourth-best in the league.
There shouldn't be too many rookies in the mix, at least early on. The Packers plucked quarterback Jordan Love in the first, running back A.J. Dillon in the second, and tight end Josiah Deguara in the third.
Turnover marginHere's another category the Packers thrived in. They finished No. 3 in turnover margin (plus-12), spearheaded by a defense that intercepted 17 passes.
Rodgers rarely turns the ball over - four interceptions in 2019 and no more than eight over a single season since 2011 - so Green Bay is almost expected to flourish in this department.
Best betI'll admit I was bearish on the Packers' outlook during the initial handicap; I was dying to sell the league's luckiest team and bet the under. However, don't assume Green Bay's just going to shed a five full wins off its 2019 record.
Rodgers is still Rodgers, there's still continuity in the coaching staff, and the schedule is right in the middle of the pack.
The Packers won't lead the NFC in wins again, but they'll do just enough to get over the hump. Take the over 9 at +120.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
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