NFL MVP odds: Jump on the Matt Ryan bandwagon
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Can you smell it? The NFL season is almost here. Over the next three weeks, the betting team at theScore will break down the top futures markets for the coming campaign. We start with Most Valuable Player, an award that's been dominated by one position.
There are 15 quarterbacks listed at +4000 or shorter on the oddsboard for NFL MVP. It makes sense considering 12 of the last 13 winners were quarterbacks. Only Adrian Peterson in 2006 was able to break the trend.
Odds to win 2020 NFL Most Valuable Player| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +400 |
| Lamar Jackson | +600 |
| Russell Wilson | +800 |
| Deshaun Watson | +1200 |
| Dak Prescott | +1400 |
| Carson Wentz | +1600 |
| Drew Brees | +1600 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2000 |
| Tom Brady | +2000 |
| Field - All Not Listed | +2500 |
| Kyler Murray | +2500 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +3000 |
| Matt Ryan | +3000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +3200 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +4000 |
| Philip Rivers | +4000 |
| Saquon Barkley | +4000 |
| Derrick Henry | +4200 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +4500 |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 |
| Cam Newton | +6000 |
| Daniel Jones | +6000 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | +6000 |
| Jameis Winston | +6000 |
| Jared Goff | +6000 |
| Josh Allen | +6000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +6000 |
| Michael Thomas | +6000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +6000 |
Odds listed for players +6000 or shorter
Best betMatt Ryan, QB Falcons +3000
Not many people are high on the Falcons heading into the season, but if you believe consistency will be a major factor in 2020, Atlanta is the most undervalued team in the NFL. Ryan threw for 4,466 yards and 26 touchdowns in 15 games a year ago, leading Atlanta to seven wins following a dismal 1-6 start.
The Falcons' offense should be even more potent in 2020 with all of last season's key pieces back in the fold. Atlanta returns its offensive coordinator, all five starters on the offensive line, and its top four receivers from a unit that averaged 379.7 yards (fifth in the NFL) and 23.8 points (13th) per game. Add running back Todd Gurley and tight end Hayden Hurst into the mix, and there's no reason Ryan can't post numbers similar to his 2016 MVP campaign when he threw for 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns.
Atlanta shares a division with a pair of Super Bowl favorites in the Saints and Buccanneers. That's causing fans and bettors alike to overlook Dan Quinn's squad. The Falcons are my surprise team this season and I expect them to have one of the NFL's highest-scoring offenses. Getting Ryan 30-1 to win MVP is a gift.
Player to avoidDeshaun Watson, QB Texans +1200
It's surprising to see Watson with the fourth-shortest odds to win MVP. He's a great player, but he'll need to lead the Texans to at least 10 wins with a roster that's been gutted thanks to poor decisions by head coach Bill O'Brien. O'Brien sent star receiver DeAndre Hopkins packing, and the defense - at least on paper - appears to be one of the weakest units in the AFC.
Houston looks like a team on the decline. The Texans' projected win total is set at 7.5, and they're -178 to miss the playoffs. Still, Watson will likely rack up plenty of yards in high-scoring shootouts this season. Instead of betting him at 12-1 to win MVP, take Watson +1800 to lead the NFL in passing yards.
Long shotCam Newton, QB Patriots +6000
Narrative alone isn't enough to win the MVP award, but it helps. Newton certainly has that going for him with the Patriots. Tossed aside by the Panthers, the 2015 MVP now has the difficult task of replacing Tom Brady in New England. No pressure.
Many people have pointed to Newton losing eight straight games as a starting quarterback to argue his skills are declining. But that skid came while Newton was playing through injuries on a bad team with an atrocious offensive line. Now he's healthy, motivated, and playing for a coach in Bill Belichick who once won 11 games with Matt Cassel under center.
If the Patriots win 10-plus games and make the playoffs after losing Brady, Newton will certainly be in the MVP mix. He's worth a shot at 60-1.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.
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