Cam Newton prop bets: Tough schedule screams 'under'
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Of all the veteran quarterbacks changing systems in 2020, Cam Newton might be the most fun to project.
The 31-year-old is entering his first year with the New England Patriots, who signed the 2015 MVP this summer to compensate for the loss of Tom Brady. Couple the direction of the Patriots franchise with all the uncertainty surrounding the former Carolina Panthers passer's game, and it makes for an intriguing handicap.
Let's dive into the numbers and see if there's any value on Newton's props.
| Cam Newton Total Passing Yards | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2950.5 | -110 |
| Under 2950.5 | -110 |
| Cam Newton Total Touchdowns | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 19.5 | -110 |
| Under 19.5 | -110 |
On the surface, these totals seem low, right? After all, Newton's surpassed the 3,000-yard plateau in every season he's played at least 14 games, and he's had 18-plus touchdowns in every qualified year:
| Year | Passing Yards | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 4051 | 21 |
| 2012 | 3869 | 19 |
| 2013 | 3379 | 24 |
| 2014 | 3127 | 18 |
| 2015 | 3837 | 35 |
| 2016 | 3509 | 19 |
| 2017 | 3302 | 22 |
| 2018 | 3395 | 24 |
Those numbers become even more impressive when considering the Panthers ranked in the top half of the league in pass-play percentage just once - in 2018 - when Newton was their primary starter:
| Year | Panthers' Pass-play % Ranking |
|---|---|
| 2011 | No. 23 |
| 2012 | No. 25 |
| 2013 | No. 28 |
| 2014 | No. 25 |
| 2015 | No. 31 |
| 2016 | No. 25 |
| 2017 | No. 27 |
| 2018 | No. 16 |
The dual-threat quarterback will undoubtedly see a significant uptick in pass attempts this season. Brady had at least 500 attempts in eight of his final nine full campaigns with the Patriots, and his teams were almost always playing in positive game scripts.
If the 2020 New England squad - which has already seen several key players opt out - isn't as competitive as ones in years past, Newton will have to throw his way back into games.
The case for the underNewton has to win the job first. He's currently competing with second-year signal-caller Jarrett Stidham, a fourth-round pick of the Patriots in 2019.
If the three-time Pro Bowler does get the nod, he'll have one hell of a gauntlet to get through: The Patriots are set to play seven games against secondaries that rank among PFF's top 10 units heading into the year (Ravens, Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, Rams, Bills twice).
Staying healthy has also been a chore for Newton - he dealt with a nagging shoulder injury in 2018 and played in only two games last year before hitting the shelf.
Best bets - Under 2,950.5 passing yards and under 19.5 touchdownsNew England is a great place for any player to succeed, let alone a successful, veteran quarterback who led the Panthers for close to a decade. So why does this feel like a round peg being jammed into a square hole?
Newton always has some upside as a dual threat, but it's hard to envision a scenario in which he lights it up through the air.
Not only will Newton play roughly half his games against the cream of the defensive crop, but his skill corps leaves a lot to be desired. Veterans receivers Julian Edelman and Mohamed Sanu are 34 and 31, respectively, while Jakobi Meyers and N'Keal Harry underwhelmed as rookies in 2019.
This feels like a throwaway year for the Patriots. Don't be too keen to hit the over button on many of their player props in 2020.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
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