Stanley Cup Final Game 6 betting preview: Stars won't go down easy

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We were a game too early on the under, with our record falling to 9-4-1 since the start of Round 3.

With at most two games left in the season, let's finish strong.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-160) at Dallas Stars (+140)

On the back of the Stars' best effort of the series, Corey Perry's double-overtime winner on Saturday forced a Game 6. It's easy to look at the shot totals from that contest, with the Lightning holding a 41-33 edge, and say Dallas earned the victory thanks to Anton Khudobin, but that's lazy analysis.

Khudobin was solid but not spectacular on Saturday. His weakness - low blocker-side shots - was exploited again, and he saved just 0.15 goals above expected in regulation.

If anything, Tampa Bay netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy deserves praise. The 2019 Vezina winner was superb throughout the game, coming up especially big during the Stars' dominant first and third periods. That's when Dallas controlled 83.7% of the expected goal share at five-on-five.

Vasilevskiy is a massive reason why the Lightning even managed to get to overtime. The Stars were expected to score 3.16 goals in regulation, compared to 2.15 for the Bolts. Dallas also held a significant offensive edge throughout the game, generating 19 high-danger chances in 89 minutes of Game 5 action, while the Lightning created 12.

The Stars may have allowed a lot of shots, but their excellent defensive play returned, with the club forcing everything to the outside and minimizing the number of quality chances against. Confidence is flowing throughout this resilient bunch, and they won't go down easy.

Dallas seems to have rediscovered its game at the right time. At a generous price - and with Steven Stamkos ruled out for the series - back the Stars to force a Game 7.

Pick: Dallas Stars (+140)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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