NFL Week 4 best bets: Colts still undervalued vs. Bears

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Entering Week 4, we've gone 2-6-1 in our NFL best bets, though this week offers promise with a few head-scratching lines.

Here are our best bets for Week 4:

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 43.5) at Chicago Bears

Are we sure the Colts aren't, like, really good? They rank No. 1 in DVOA and No. 2 in PFF team grades. They also lead the NFL in net yards per play (1.6) by a country mile. They were done in by turnovers in Week 1 despite outgaining the Jaguars by 204 yards, and they subsequently blew out the Vikings and Jets.

Now oddsmakers are taking caution against a fraudulent 3-0 Bears team that ranks below average in net yardage and needed a miracle comeback against the Falcons behind Nick Foles, who makes his first start with Chicago on Sunday. He's just 3-8 against the spread as a home 'dog and should struggle to lead an inferior roster to a win this week.

Pick: Colts -2.5

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-3.5, 54)

I wrote about the Vikings as my favorite upset pick of the week on Thursday, and the line has already moved a full point in their favor. They entered the year rated higher in the betting market, have performed better than the Texans by advanced metrics, and still find themselves as clear underdogs in a must-win spot for both sides.

Minnesota's secondary has been an issue this year, but Houston's might be even worse through the first three weeks of the season. The Texans' run defense is the bigger problem, and it's ill-equipped to handle Dalvin Cook, who ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards (294), sixth in yards per carry (6.1), and tied for first in TDs (4). If he gets going, this game is over.

The elephant in the room is the Vikings' disrupted week of preparation, but that isn't enough to deter me from grabbing value when I see it. This point spread is shaded too far toward the wrong winless team, and there's value on Minnesota's moneyline (+165), too.

Pick: Vikings +3.5

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 54) at Miami Dolphins

The Seahawks might never go under again. They're 21-9 to the over in their last 30 games, and they've gone over by at least 12 points in all three contests this year.

Russell Wilson's MVP turn is a key reason, leading Seattle's offense to the second-highest points per game (37.0) in the league. On the other side, though, the defense has allowed the most passing yards (1,292) through three games in NFL history, and all three of the Seahawks' opponents have scored at least 25 points.

The Dolphins exploited the Jaguars' inconsistent secondary last week in a 31-point performance, but Jacksonville's paltry effort on offense halted Miami's 7-2 over run. The over is 20-12-3 since 2018 with a total this high, and neither side should have any trouble keeping that alive on Sunday.

Pick: Over 54

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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