NFL Week 6 best bets: Keep fading Eagles, Falcons

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After an undefeated Week 4, I went 1-2 last week with a near-miss on the Vikings-Seahawks total. Here are my best bets for Week 6.

Ravens (-7.5, 47.5) at Eagles, Oct. 18 @ 1 p.m. ET

The first bet I made this week was the Ravens -7, and I'm still buying here despite the hook. Not only is Baltimore in an excellent spot as a big road favorite, but it should dominate a key matchup against the injury-riddled Eagles.

Philadelphia's O-line has been an issue all year and is a key reason for the team's 1-4 start against the spread. Since drafting Carson Wentz in 2016, the Eagles are 29-11-1 ATS when allowing fewer than three sacks and 8-26 ATS when allowing three or more in a game.

Wentz was sacked five times in last week's loss to the Steelers, while the Ravens' blitz-happy defense brought down Joe Burrow seven times in last week's win over the Bengals. If the Eagles' injured front can't withstand Baltimore's relentless pressure, Philadelphia will be lucky to stay within double digits.

Pick: Ravens -7.5

Falcons at Vikings (-4, 54.5), Oct. 18 @ 1 p.m.

The Texans earned a statement win over the Jaguars last week after firing their coach, so maybe I'm the fool for thinking the Falcons will struggle in a similar spot. Yet nothing about this matchup suggests this line should be this short.

Despite a 1-4 record, the Vikings have been one of the better teams in the league on a week-to-week basis per advanced metrics. The Falcons (0-5) have not been as impressive, thanks in part to a calamitous defense that's only getting worse as injuries mount.

Despite the way the defense has played, Atlanta slapped the interim tag on defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who hasn't coached since 2011 and went 1-9 ATS in his final 10 games that season. Teams to replace their coach midseason are 14-23 ATS since 2000, and the Falcons are in a bad spot to buck that trend Sunday.

Pick: Vikings -4

Chiefs (-4.5, 57.5) at Bills, Oct. 19 @ 5 p.m.

A week ago, I recommended always targeting at least one high total each week until oddsmakers priced out that inefficiency. This week, we're taking a shot on the highest total of the week, which still isn't high enough given the teams involved.

The key dilemma in defending Patrick Mahomes is whether to blitz him and risk leaving receivers open, or rush four and give him extra time to shred the secondary. Neither seems to work for the Bills, who have blitzed more than all but one team this year but are tied for the sixth-fewest pressures in the league. In essence, they'll be at Mahomes' mercy no matter what they do.

The Chiefs' defense has been exposed by dual-threat quarterbacks in the past and should struggle to contain Josh Allen, who ranks second among QBs in passing touchdowns (14) and third in rushing touchdowns (3). This is also a favorable matchup for Buffalo's passing attack. Against Kansas City last week, Derek Carr recorded 234 of his 347 passing yards over the middle of the field, where Allen is at his best.

Totals above 57 have gone 16-6-1 to the over since 2000, including 3-1 when Mahomes is involved with an average combined score of 78.8 points. There may not be a total high enough for this game, and 57.5 certainly isn't it.

Pick: Over 57.5

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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