5 betting takeaways from NFL Week 7

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Upsets, comebacks, and two of the worse beats of the young NFL season. Week 7 had it all for bettors, and it also helped reveal which teams are worth backing and which have some serious work to do.

Here are five betting takeaways from Week 7.

Steelers beat Titans to remain lone unbeaten team

And then there was one. After waiting three weeks to finally face the undefeated Titans (-1), the Steelers were up for the task, holding off a late rally in a 27-24 win. Pittsburgh scored on five of its first six drives and outgained Tennessee 161 yards to 1 yard early on before withstanding the Titans' inspired comeback bid.

If you waited for proof of the Steelers' Super Bowl upside, you might be too late. Only three teams have shorter odds than Pittsburgh (+950), which travels to Baltimore next week for a heavyweight matchup with the Ravens (-4). If the Steelers lose that game, their title odds likely won't falter much. If they win? Good luck buying anytime soon.

As for the other undefeated team entering the week? The Seahawks (-3.5) jumped out to an early lead and led all of regulation, but the Cardinals forced overtime and drilled a game-winning field goal in the waning seconds. It was the first time Seattle had lost with a halftime lead of at least four points since Russell Wilson took over in 2012; the team was 59-0 before Sunday.

This is the type of loss we can expect from this club with the state of its defense, though it's hard to fault either team for the loss given how wild Sunday night's affair was. The Seahawks were always going to lose eventually; an upcoming stretch against the 49ers, Bills, and Rams could prove whether Seattle's title price (+1000) is worth the investment.

Cowboys, Patriots reach new lows

A few weeks ago, it seemed hard to fathom that the Cowboys could have the worst record against the spread at any point this season given the ineptitude in New York. Yet here we are, staring at Dallas' 0-7 ATS mark after an embarrassing 25-3 loss to Washington (-1) that was even uglier than it sounds.

The lowlight came in the third quarter when Jon Bostic knocked quarterback Andy Dalton out of the game with a nasty headshot. Dalton had been ineffective up to that point, and backup Ben DiNucci wasn't much better in the Cowboys' worst offensive showing since 2018 and third-worst in 15 years. Best wishes betting this team to win the NFC East (+350); I certainly won't be buying.

The Patriots also looked lost in a 33-6 defeat to the 49ers (+3) that made history for all the wrong reasons. It's the team's worst home loss under Bill Belichick and second-worst overall, it's tied for the club's second-lowest scoring output in 14 years, and it marks New England's first three-game losing streak since 2002.

The offense is clearly to blame after scoring a combined 28 points over the last three games. Cam Newton was a disaster Sunday with 98 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions, becoming the first Patriot to hit those marks in a game since Steve Grogan in 1983. If Newton can't rediscover his early-season magic, New England's long-shot title price (+3700) is hard to swallow.

Late swings foil bettors

Apologies to anyone who bet the Browns or Falcons this weekend, but your misfortune was someone else's gain in the most thrilling of ways.

Let's start in Cleveland, where the Bengals (+3.5) had seemingly sewn up the game with a last-minute score to take a three-point advantage, only for the Browns to march down the field and recapture the lead with a beautiful toe-tapper by Donovan Peoples-Jones. There was only one problem: Cody Parkey.

The kicker infamous for costing the Bears two years ago missed the extra point for Cleveland this time around, devastating those who thought their spread bets were saved by a late score. It's the second time Browns bettors have suffered a bad beat against the Bengals this year, as a meaningless score in the final minute of these teams' Week 2 meeting pulled Cincinnati within five as a six-point underdog.

Things were similarly dramatic this week in Atlanta, where the Falcons (-1.5) fittingly blew a game in which they had a 98.7% chance to win, per ESPN Stats & Info. With 1:04 left and his team down by two, Todd Gurley burst through the line and tried to stop short of the end zone to ensure his side could bleed the clock and kick the game-winning field goal.

To Falcons spread bettors' delight, Gurley accidentally plunged across the goal line, giving Atlanta a six-point lead and an easy cover. It wouldn't last - the Lions picked apart the Falcons' inept defense and scored as time expired, stunning anyone who bet Atlanta ATS or on the moneyline (-125).

Jets finally cover in loss

The losing continues for the 0-7 Jets, but bettors finally had something to smile about Sunday.

New York (+9.5) took a 10-6 lead into halftime and, miraculously, held the Bills without a touchdown in an 18-10 defeat. The offense fell apart in the second half, as it's wont to do, but Sunday's effort was a dramatic improvement from New York's six ATS losses to this point.

Could this spark a season turnaround for the Jets? It's not likely. The last three teams to start 0-6 ATS and cover in their seventh game went a combined 1-2 ATS the following week. Those three teams finished a collective 10-38 straight up and 14-31-3 ATS.

Is home-field advantage dead?

Entering this year, many bettors suspected home-field advantage could be mitigated given the lack of fans. That's certainly been the case, and this week was a prime example of how little home-field advantage matters.

Home teams went 5-8 ATS this week, bringing their record to 44-56-4 ATS (44%) on the campaign. That would be the second-worst mark by home teams over a full season since at least 1989, while clubs' 52-51-1 SU record (50.5%) at home is already the worst mark in that span.

Home teams have had a losing record ATS in each of the last three weeks, and this week's 5-8 SU mark is the worst in any week since this time last year, which was also a historically unfavorable season to home teams. If you're still pricing in a few points on the home side, it might be time to re-evaluate.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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