NFC East odds: Which team will win NFL's worst division?
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On Sunday night, the Eagles will play the Cowboys in a game with major divisional implications. The winner will earn at least a share of the NFC East lead through eight weeks and seize control of the league's most unpredictable division. And yet, both teams enter with just two wins through their first seven games.
Welcome to the NFC East, football's worst division and perhaps the worst of all time. It's the first time in NFL history that every team in a division has fewer than three wins through the first seven weeks, per NFL Research. The NFC East is also on pace to shatter the record for worst cumulative winning percentage (.268) and the worst winning percentage by a division champion (.357).
Injuries have complicated this race even further. The Eagles (2-4-1) have 11 players on injured reserve, per Spotrac, seemingly including their entire offensive line and receiving corps; the Cowboys (2-5) are on their third-string quarterback; Washington (2-5) added former All-Pro safety Landon Collins to its own growing IR list Sunday; and the Giants (1-6) are listless without do-it-all back Saquon Barkley, who's out for the year.
Alas, somebody has to win this division, even if it only takes six or seven wins. Here are the odds to win the NFC East and what you should know about each team's chances:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | -165 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +350 |
| Washington Football Team | +450 |
| New York Giants | +1200 |
If it's possible for a team to "deserve" to be favored in this mess of a division, it's the Eagles by default. They have the best record by a half-game after squeaking by the Giants on Thursday night, and their net yards per play (-0.2) is the highest in the division.
Should the price be this short, though? Philadelphia barely escaped an inept New York squad and is 0-1 against the other two NFC East teams. Carson Wentz has the third-worst QBR of any season-long starter (50.5), and even his best performance was a bit shaky - he was 7-for-10 for 104 yards and two touchdowns on his team's first and last drives Thursday, and 18-for-33 for 255 yards and an interception in between.
The Eagles aren't my favorite pick out of this division, but they're easily the safest with a slim lead and key players expected to return from injury. Still, this isn't a great team, or even a good one, so take that into consideration before betting such a short price.
Dallas Cowboys (+350)The Cowboys are broken, and it's going to take longer than 10 weeks for them to pick up the pieces. Dak Prescott couldn't lift this squad to a winning mark despite setting NFL records prior to his injury. Since he went down, Dallas has been outscored 63-13 and has the league's second-worst point differential (-67) behind the Jets.
It's hard to decide what's most troubling about this club. Is it the quarterback position, which could be manned by seventh-rounder Ben DiNucci on Sunday? Is it the defense, which ranks dead last in opposing points per game (34.7) and rushing yards per contest (178.3)? Is it the team culture, which has come under fire for a lack of effort and an unwillingness to support one another?
It's surprising to see the Cowboys listed at just +350 when they're arguably the worst in the division. It's also hard to see how that changes without a surprise at quarterback or a brand-new defense.
Washington Football Team (+450)Before we knew just how bad the Jets would be, many thought Washington would be the NFL's worst squad. Instead, the team has been a pleasant surprise, going 2-1 against the NFC East and remaining competitive against a stout non-conference schedule.
There are clear positives for this club, too. Washington's defense quietly ranks 11th in points allowed (23.6) and fourth in yards allowed (309.1) on the strength of its dominant pass rush, which is a boon in a division full of bad offensive line play. The offense is still a work in progress, but Kyle Allen has improved in each of his three starts after a midseason quarterback change, and he has a legit game-changing weapon in receiver Terry McLaurin.
Four of Washington's first seven opponents have a winning record through Week 7; only three of its final nine can say the same. With tiebreakers over the Eagles and Giants, this team is positioned to erase its half-game deficit over the back half of the season.
New York Giants (+1200)This division could've been the Giants' to lose with a healthy Barkley. Instead, their 31st-ranked offense - behind the Jets, as always - has held them back. They've scored 21 or fewer points in six of seven games, and they only won in Week 6 because Washington unsuccessfully attempted a two-point conversion in a 20-19 loss.
The defense has been surprisingly effective, led by All-Pro candidates James Bradberry and Blake Martinez, both of whom were added in free agency. The biggest issue has been turnovers; Daniel Jones ranks in the top three in interceptions (7) and fumbles (4), which has made it nearly impossible for New York to sustain offensive success or prevent scoring opportunities.
Getting 12-1 odds in this division is attractive regardless of the team, so I can't fault anyone for taking a shot. A multi-game deficit will be tough to overcome, though, for a club that may not win another contest all season.
Best betWashington +450
Three weeks ago, I said Washington was the best divisional bet you could make at 10-1 odds. Here we are now, and this team is still one of the NFL's best values.
The statistics support it, too. Washington has the best point differential in the division (-32), is ranked highest in the NFC East by DVOA (21st), and is directly behind the Eagles in PFF team grades (25th). Football Outsiders' playoff odds report gives Washington a 23.3% chance of winning the division, which is still factoring in a few sloppy weeks under Dwayne Haskins.
That percentage would imply roughly +325 odds, so you're getting an obvious value even with that conservative estimate. It's not a sexy pick betting on a club without many household names, or even an actual team name, but it's the best value you can find in the NFL's worst division.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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