NFL bad line of the week: All signs point to Texans blowout
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We took it on the chin in last week's bad line selection. The Los Angeles Rams, laying 3.5 over the Miami Dolphins, lost by double digits, ending our streak of four straight correct picks.
But there's no time like the present to get back on track. Here's the board for Week 9, as well as the one line that looks a little fishy.
| Matchup | Spread |
|---|---|
| GB @ SF | Packers -2 |
| DET @ MIN | Vikings -4 |
| DEN @ ATL | Falcons -4 |
| HOU @ JAX | Texans -6.5 |
| CAR @ KC | Chiefs -12 |
| SEA @ BUF | Seahawks -2.5 |
| CHI @ TEN | Titans -6 |
| BAL @ IND | Ravens -3 |
| NYG @ WFT | WFT -3 |
| LV @ LAC | Chargers -1.5 |
| MIA @ ARI | Cardinals -4.5 |
| PIT @ DAL | OFF |
| NE @ NYJ | Patriots -7 |
| NO @ TB | Buccaneers -4 |
The Houston Texans' lone victory of the season came in Week 5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston should double its win total comfortably on Sunday when the two AFC South clubs meet again.
Houston has been one of the toughest teams to gauge in 2020. Most 1-6 clubs don't get a pass, but the Texans may have a case: they've played the second-toughest schedule in the NFL entering Week 9, including games against three of the top four DVOA offenses and two of the top three DVOA defenses. It's actually impressive that the Texans are +0.1 in net yards per play despite that tough path.
That's a sign that Houston is probably due for a bounce-back game, and it's likely to come against a punching bag like the Jaguars. We saw a similar situation earlier in the year; after going 0-4 against the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Minnesota Vikings to open, the Texans steamrolled Jacksonville in their first real tune-up.
The Texans dropped a crucial divisional game against the Tennessee Titans in Week 6 and were run out of their own building by the Green Bay Packers a week later. Coming off a bye, the Texans should feast against a Jaguars squad getting out-gained by nearly a full yard per play despite playing the seventh-easiest schedule in the NFL.
This is also a smash spot both for Houston and against Jacksonville. We can play the road favorites coming off a bye (81-43-2 against the spread since 1999) and fade the home underdogs off a bye (11-25-1 ATS since 1999).
Finally, the Texans are 3-0 both straight-up and ATS all time versus the Jags when coming off a bye and 0-5 against all other opponents in the same situation.
Jacksonville should be focused more on inching closer to the No. 1 overall pick than competing against a far superior team. Fade a Jags squad that hasn't covered a spread since Week 2.
Pick: Texans -6.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
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