5 betting takeaways from NFL Week 8

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We saw another week full of NFL records, though most were of the lowlight variety. Here are five betting takeaways from Week 8.

Steelers stake claim as NFL's best

For the second straight week, we lead with the undefeated Steelers, who erased a 10-point halftime deficit in Sunday's 28-24 win over the Ravens (-4). The victory brings them to 7-0 for just the second time in franchise history; Pittsburgh started 7-0 en route to a Super Bowl in 1979.

Four of the last seven teams to start 7-0 made the Super Bowl, though only one of them actually won it all (the 2015 Broncos). These Steelers could be the second. Their defense forced reigning MVP Lamar Jackson into a career-high four turnovers and a career-low 12.6 QBR, and their offense showed enough to justify their short +600 title price.

As good as Sunday was for Pittsburgh, it was equally as bad for the Ravens (+900 to win the Super Bowl), who are now two games back in the AFC North. They lost All-Pro tackle Ronnie Stanley to a season-ending knee injury just days after signing him to an extension, which is a major blow to a team that relies heavily on its offensive line. Then on Monday, All-Pro corner Marlon Humphrey announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19. You might want to take a wait-and-see approach before trying to buy low on Baltimore.

Rookie QBs lead major upsets

The top two picks in April's draft were both in action Sunday, and each helped key two of the week's bigger upsets.

Before the year, we suspected there would be weekly betting value on Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Sure enough, they're 6-1-1 against the spread after a convincing win over the Titans (-7), whom we felt could be walking into a trap game. Burrow had one of his best games as a pro, picking apart Tennessee's defense for 249 yards, two touchdowns, and zero turnovers. If you aren't already all aboard the Burrow betting train, your ticket is waiting in will call.

Tua Tagovailoa (93 yards, 1 TD) didn't look as sharp Sunday, but he did just enough to help the Dolphins (+3.5) score our favorite upset pick of the week against the inconsistent Rams. He had some rookie moments in his NFL debut, though Miami's exotic defense showed its game-wrecking potential, and its elite special teams unit turned the tide once again. Only three teams have better ATS records than the Dolphins (5-2), who are quickly becoming one of my favorite teams to bet each week.

Eagles blast Cowboys to stretch division lead

For as bad as all four NFC East teams have been this year, we knew the winner of Sunday's game would be in the driver's seat to win the division. That honor went to the Eagles (-10), who are now 1.5 games ahead of Washington and priced at -230 to win the NFL's most dubious divisional race.

Despite the final score, Philadelphia wasn't particularly impressive in its 23-9 win. Carson Wentz finished with 123 yards, two touchdowns, and two bone-headed interceptions that continue to raise questions about his legitimacy as a starting quarterback. The defense did just enough to fluster seventh-round rookie Ben DiNucci, whose late fumble resulted in the Eagles' game-sealing score and a brutal loss for Cowboys +10 bettors.

This contest likely says less about Philly and more about Dallas, which drops to 0-8 ATS and third place in the NFC East. The Cowboys are only the third team to start 0-8 ATS in the last 30 years (1991 Bengals, 2003 Raiders). Neither club went above .500 ATS over its final eight games, and Dallas won't either if its offense doesn't improve from Sunday's showing.

Chargers collapse again in historic fashion

If you thought the Falcons and Lions were alone on the pedestal of the NFL's biggest chokers, you might want to make room for the Chargers.

At one point in Sunday's 31-30 loss to the Broncos, Los Angeles (-3) led 24-3 and had 24 first downs to Denver's two. Still, the Chargers managed to cough up that 21-point lead and lose on a game-winning touchdown as time expired. It was the third straight 17-point lead or worse that Los Angeles has blown this season, which is to say nothing of the 16-point advantage the Chargers threw away last week before closing out the Jaguars.

L.A. had a 17-point lead or better against the Buccaneers (-7), Saints (-7), and Broncos (+3), and had at least a 94.6% chance of winning each of those contests, per ESPN. It had a mere 0.0016% chance of blowing all three. The Chargers might be a sneaky value given how well they've played against the NFL's best, but if they can't resolve their late-game woes, it won't matter.

Favorites losing at historic pace

Remember two weeks ago when we highlighted how bad favorites were? They were even worse this week, bringing down this season's mark to a record low.

Favorites went 4-9 ATS this week, the worst regular-season mark since Week 6 of 2017, which was one of the worst of all time. Their straight-up record this week (6-7) was also the worst since 2017 and the first time favorites had a losing record outright in the last 15 weeks.

On the season, favorites are now on pace for the worst ATS winning percentage (47.4%) and the lowest average scoring margin (+4.54) since 2006. Part of it might be the dwindling value of home-field advantage. This season, home favorites have the second-worst ATS mark (44.4%) since 1997, while home teams in general are sporting the worst record (45.6%) since at least 1989, the first year of available data.

This could be a sample size issue - four of the last five seasons have seen a worse record for favorites through Week 8. Still, there are more sizable upsets this year than usual, and it's a trend that has only gotten stronger as the season has developed.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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