NFL bad line of the week: Fade Cousins, Vikings on MNF
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Our bad line of the week last Sunday was so close to coming through, but the Houston Texans coughed up a late, double-digit lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Here are the spreads for Week 10, as well as the one we think bettors can exploit.
| Matchup | Spread |
|---|---|
| IND @ TEN | Titans -1 |
| PHI @ NYG | Eagles -3.5 |
| WFT @ DET | Lions -3.5 |
| JAX @ GB | Packers -14 |
| HOU @ CLE | Browns -3 |
| TB @ CAR | Buccaneers -6.5 |
| DEN @ LV | Raiders -5 |
| BUF @ ARI | Cardinals -1.5 |
| LAC @ MIA | Dolphins -2.5 |
| SF @ NO | Saints -9 |
| SEA @ LAR | Rams -1.5 |
| CIN @ PIT | Steelers -8.5 |
| BAL @ NE | Ravens -7 |
| MIN @ CHI | Vikings -2.5 |
The Minnesota Vikings are gaining traction for the first time all season. They've won back-to-back games and scored 26-plus points in five of the last six. The Vikings are looking to complete a three-week sweep over the NFC North when they travel to take on the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football, but bettors should pump the brakes a bit.
Minnesota is quietly the league leader in yards per play (6.6), but it's had an easy path, playing units that currently rank No. 17 (twice), 20, 21, 22, and 29 (twice) in DVOA defense. The only team the Vikings played inside the top half of the league in that category was the Indianapolis Colts (No. 3), and Minnesota lost by 17.
The Bears are No. 6 in DVOA defense and have given the Vikings fits lately, particularly running back Dalvin Cook. Chicago dominated the 2020 rushing leader in three previous matchups, holding him to a combined 86 yards on 34 career carries (2.52 yards per carry).
On the flip side, Chicago's offense finally has a chance to do something this weekend. Since Nick Foles was thrust into the starting role, the Bears have played three top-10 DVOA defenses, plus another game against the division-leading Tennessee Titans on the road. Minnesota's No. 16-ranked DVOA defense at Soldier Field will be one of the most favorable matchups of the entire year.
If that's not enough, all the trends point to one side.
This is a nice spot to fade Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, who still doesn't have a win on Monday Night Football (0-9). The veteran is just 8-32 straight-up against winning teams in his career, a trend that applies Monday against the 5-4 Bears.
The Vikings have also struggled mightily in this series, going 1-5 against the spread the last six and 3-14 ATS the last 17 at Soldier Field.
Chicago, meanwhile, is 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 games as a home underdog and 10-4 ATS the last 14 versus divisional opponents.
Play the home team in this prime-time tilt.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
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