Hamilton could be headed to orange alert level after surge of 185 COVID cases in three days, says infectious disease doctor

A surge of COVID-19 cases in Hamilton continued Monday with public health reporting 67 new infections and one death.

Over the last three days, Hamilton has seen cases increase by a record 185 - 46 on Saturday, 72 on Sunday and 67 on Monday. There have now been a total of 2,184 cases in Hamilton over the pandemic.

Certainly larger numbers than previously when we were hovering around 30 cases per day on average," said Dr. Dominik Mertz, associate professor in the division of infectious diseases at McMaster. We are still in a much better situation than Peel ... also compared to Toronto, but certainly heading toward the orange category in the new Ontario framework if the current trend continues."

Orange is one alert level above Hamilton's current status of yellow and involves further restrictions.

Recent days have also seen three more deaths - two reported on Saturday and one on Monday - to bring the city's pandemic death toll to 54 or 2.5 per cent of cases.

The number of active cases in Hamilton is 364 - believed to be the largest in the nearly eight months since COVID-19 first hit the city.

Obviously this is concerning, particularly given a significant amount is in long-term-care and other outbreaks," said Hamilton infectious disease physician Dr. Zain Chagla. This is certainly a change from a month ago - where we are starting to intersect into vulnerable settings, and larger numbers of people are being infected after a primary case."

Nearly one-quarter of new cases in the last 10 days are from outbreaks.

Hamilton has 19 ongoing outbreaks including one more reported Monday. The latest is one case in a staff member at Macassa Lodge, which is a long-term-care home at 701 Upper Sherman Ave. It adds to the five new outbreaks reported over the weekend.

Almost two-thirds of Hamilton's outbreaks are in seniors' homes with 12 now grappling with the virus.

The biggest is at Chartwell Willowgrove long-term-care home in Ancaster where 31 residents and 20 staff are infected for a total of 51 cases since the outbreak was declared Oct. 22. There have been at least four deaths at the home at 1217 Old Mohawk Rd.

There has also been at death at the Village of Wentworth Heights where five residents have been infected at the long-term-care home at 1620 Upper Wentworth St.

Another large outbreak is ongoing at St. Joseph's Villa in Dundas where 11 residents and eight staff have been infected since Nov. 6 for a total of 19 cases at the long-term-care home at 56 Governors Rd.

In addition, an outbreak is spreading at Hamilton Continuing Care where 10 residents and one staff have tested positive since Oct. 31 for a total of 11 cases at the long-term-care home at 125 Wentworth St. S.

Baywoods Place is now up to seven cases at the long-term-care home on 330 Main St. E. where five staff and two residents are infected.

The other seniors' homes have one or two cases each.

Hamilton's other outbreaks include a retail store, a restaurant, a men's shelter, a bakery, a group home, a daycare and a program for adults with special needs.

The last two at La Garderie Le Petit Navire Daycare and Echo Day Program have five cases each.

A significant proportion of cases seem to be outbreak related," said Mertz.

But he also points out that nearly one-quarter of cases from the last 10 days are community acquired, meaning public health can't pinpoint where the person was infected.

There ... seems to be a steady increase in cases with no known link," he said. The latter being the most concerning category as it suggests an increasing number of cases in the community that we are unaware of."

Both doctors flagged that more than one-third of infections in the last 10 days come from close contact with a case.

There are a large amount of clusters - suggesting that either people are not being tested early enough or people aren't adhering to the distancing/masking measures outside of their households," said Chagla.

The rest of the cases from the last 10 days include two per cent with a travel history and 17 per cent still under investigation.

There have been 174 people hospitalized in Hamilton over the course of the pandemic, which is a jump from 166 one week ago. St. Joseph's Healthcare is reporting two cases in hospital while Hamilton Health Sciences reports five.

More to come.

Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com