NFL upset of the week: Giants will settle the score with Eagles

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Each week during the NFL season, we'll focus on one underdog with a chance to pull off the outright upset. Last week, the Colts (+105) wilted in a winnable spot against the Ravens, bringing our record to 3-6 on moneyline underdogs with -0.5 units won.

This week, we've got our eye on the Giants (+160), who are catching 3.5 points but could arguably be favored against the inconsistent Eagles.

Don't sleep on New York's defense

The Giants sit in last place in the NFL's worst division, so you'd be forgiven for overlooking just how frisky they've been this year. Seven of their nine games have been decided by one score, including each of the last four weeks.

Much of the credit belongs to their defense, which is among the top half of the NFL in yards allowed (360.0) and points allowed (24.3). New York has held its last four opponents to 21.5 points per contest on average with nine forced turnovers over that stretch. In fact, the Giants' 15 takeaways rank second thus far, though their 15 giveaways have held them back.

Since the middle of 2016, New York is 15-6 when winning the turnover battle and 3-31 when losing it. That's encouraging ahead of this matchup with the Eagles, who rank second-worst in the NFL in turnover differential (-7) and beat the Giants by one point in Week 7 despite forcing three turnovers. It'll bode well for New York's chances if the team can stabilize that number.

Philly's roster still in flux

As much as bettors want to believe in the Eagles, this roster still has major issues. The bye week came at a perfect time, but it still didn't rectify Philadelphia's beleaguered offensive line or erase lingering injuries for nearly every skill-position player.

However, Carson Wentz wouldn't be able to connect with a full arsenal of weapons as evidenced by his league-leading 12 interceptions through eight games. That won't fly against an opportunistic Giants defense that picked off three passes and forced three fumbles a week ago against Washington.

Believe it or not, Philadelphia ranks lower than New York in DVOA and PFF team grades, yet the Eagles are giving points on the road to a club they narrowly beat at home. There simply isn't value in chasing the perception of a team.

Why the Giants will win

New York's offense is still rudderless, and its defense is led by two recent signees - James Bradberry and Blake Martinez - whom most casual NFL fans have never heard of. It still works, though, as this team had the Buccaneers on the ropes just a week after nearly beating the Eagles.

Expect the Giants to take better care of the ball in the rematch and continue to force Wentz into uncomfortable throws that he hasn't shown he can make this year. That alone should be enough for New York to pull off the upset this time around.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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