Hamilton heads toward further restrictions in orange — but will it be enough to stop COVID spread?
Hamilton's surging COVID cases meet the requirements for further restrictions as grim projections suggest Ontario is headed toward lockdown.
Our case numbers will likely exceed those in several jurisdictions in Europe that are in some form of lockdown," said Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. I do not believe there is a way the cases will change without action."
Projections called alarming" by Ontario's chief medical officer of health, Dr. David Williams, show the province is on the path to 6,000 to 7,000 new cases a day by mid-December.
Under any modelling scenario, intensive care units are expected to be so full within two to three weeks that elective surgeries are cancelled.
We've had substantial growth in the per cent positivity in older age groups now - in some cases a tripling or quadrupling - this is very challenging and dangerous news for the health system," said Brown.
Within six weeks, Brown says Ontario could be facing significant limitations to the health system's ability to react to additional patient needs, significant limitations on the access to care and significant challenges in getting people treated when they have health emergencies."
Despite dire warnings from Brown that the later one intervenes ... the harder it is to get the case growth under control," Ontario is sticking with its colour-coded response framework that has been widely criticized as taking too long to implement restrictions.
Under that framework Hamilton would move up one tier into orange - called restrict" - from yellow, with a decision expected from the province Friday.
Orange requires a weekly incident rate of 40 to 99.9 per 100,000. Hamilton is at 48.1 for Nov. 1 to 7. The per cent of COVID tests coming back positive is 2.5 to 9.9 in orange. Hamilton is at 3.0 per cent as of Nov. 6.
Hamilton's reproduction number of 1.25 as of Nov. 12 is higher than the 1.0 to 1.2 in orange. It means each case on average infects 1.25 people, so Hamilton's 33 new infections reported Thursday would be expected to turn into roughly 41 more cases in about five days.
In addition, Hamilton has 20 active outbreaks - one in a daycare, three in workplaces, four in community organizations and 12 in seniors' homes. At least five of them would be considered large.
Hamilton's pandemic death toll went up to 60 after a man in his early 90s died Nov. 10 in an outbreak at the Village of Wentworth Heights and another senior died Nov. 11 at Chartwell Willowgrove in Ancaster, which has had 59 cases and eight deaths.
In November so far, 12 have died in COVID outbreaks at Hamilton seniors' homes which is a trend seen across the province.
Long-term care home cases are growing ... and resident mortality is growing substantially," said Brown.
Hamilton has more than one-quarter of cases that can't be traced to a source, which is called community transmission. Hospital occupancy has been close to 100 per cent, meaning all funded beds are full. The province had to send help Wednesday to the city's public health department because it couldn't keep up with contact tracing.
The most significant restriction in orange is the closing of strip clubs. Restaurants, bars and event spaces close by 10 p.m. Alcohol is served between 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. and only four people can be seated at a table. Screening and information for contact tracing are required.
Another change is that some sectors can only have 50 people inside - with some exceptions. No spectators are allowed for sports. Capacity limits may be placed on stores and shopping malls.
Personal care services requiring the removal of face coverings are prohibited. Change rooms, showers, bath houses, public hot tubs, floating pools and whirlpools close.
Williams continued to suggest, If everyone did what they are supposed to do, we can bring those numbers down."
But Brown said more needs to be done as Ontario's rate of growth jumped to six per cent in the last three days from four.
If we continue on with the current level of restrictions I would not expect to see any deviation from the current results, you would expect to see growth," he said. Even with new restrictions, if they were implemented today, you'd still see growth for a little while in the cases and the mortality as it takes that time to filter through the system."
Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com