NFL bad line of the week: Buccaneers' D a tough test for Goff, Rams

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For the second consecutive week, the one spread that smells fishy falls on Monday Night Football.

Here's who I'm hammering in prime time:

Bad line of the week: Buccaneers (-3 vs. Rams)

I was skeptical of the Buccaneers heading into the season. Whenever you stack a bunch of high-profile names on paper, you typically have to temper expectations. Remember the 2019 Browns? You get the picture.

Just past the halfway point of the season, there might not be a better value grab to win the Super Bowl than Tampa Bay. And as strange as it may sound, it has little to do with Tom Brady.

It starts with the defense.

This unit really came on late last season and has only gotten better in 2020. The Buccaneers currently pace the NFL in total DVOA defense. They rank No. 2 in the league in DVOA pass defense and No. 3 against the run.

Tampa's D isn't a solid matchup for a lot of teams, and it's certainly not an ideal draw for quarterback Jared Goff and the Rams' offense.

Goff always struggles under duress. He has a 60.4% adjusted completion rate when pressured this year and - oddly enough - a 60.4 passer rating. In 2019, he finished No. 25 in passer rating under pressure and No. 32 when holding the ball for 2.5 seconds or longer.

These are all red flags against a Tampa defense that's No. 3 in adjusted sack rate. The Buccaneers should feast here.

The Rams have been a nice story this season. They've stood out in arguably the toughest division in the league, entering Week 11 with a 6-3 record while outscoring opponents by 5.3 points per game.

The Buccaneers have just been ... better, by a decent amount, too.

Tampa is outscoring its opponents by seven points per game, which ranks No. 6 in the NFL. That's even more impressive considering the Buccaneers have played the league's fourth-toughest schedule thus far.

Whenever you can bet Brady on Monday Night Football, you might want to take the gamble: He's covered 61% of his career games on this stage.

The Rams are in for a long, long night.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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