NFL Week 11 survivor picks: Trust the Cowboys' collapse to continue
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A less-than-convincing Packers win - but a win nonetheless - sent us through to Week 11. Ten down, seven to go.
I'm changing things up a bit in this column. There's no point in telling you all why the Steelers, Chiefs, or some other team is the pick of the week when you - and I - have already picked that team. This whole thing would become an exercise in futility.
Instead, I'll go over each of my top 10 picks each week and rank them from strongest to weakest, and you can decide from there. If by some miracle you happen to have used all 10 teams already, refer to the confidence rankings. That's what they're there for.
Week 11 confidence rankingConfidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:
| AWAY | HOME (SPREAD) | PICK (CR) |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas | Minnesota (-7.5) | MIN (8) |
| Pittsburgh | Jacksonville (+10) | PIT (7) |
| Kansas City | Las Vegas (+7) | KC (6) |
| NY Jets | LA Chargers (-7.5) | LAC (6) |
| Atlanta | New Orleans (N/A) | NO (5) |
| Arizona | Seattle (-3) | SEA (4) |
| Tennessee | Baltimore (-6) | BAL (4) |
| Miami | Denver (+3) | MIA (4) |
| Detroit | Carolina (N/A) | CAR (3) |
| Philadelphia | Cleveland (N/A) | CLE (3) |
| LA Rams | Tampa Bay (-3) | TB (2) |
| New England | Houston (+1.5) | NE (1) |
| Cincinnati | Washington (-2) | CIN (1) |
| Green Bay | Indianapolis (-2.5) | GB (1) |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
1. Minnesota Vikings (vs. Dallas Cowboys)As the Cowboys come out of their bye, the rest of their season can go one of two ways: They either rally in a still-open NFC East, or they completely capitulate. When a team comes into the season with Super Bowl aspirations and the first half of the campaign goes as poorly as it has for Dallas, it's usually the latter.
We still don't know if Garrett Gilbert or Andy Dalton will be starting for the Cowboys this week, but it won't matter much against a rapidly improving Vikings defense. Mike Zimmer's creative blitz schemes will overwhelm the Cowboys' ravaged offensive line, while Minnesota's winning formula on offense - running Dalvin Cook early and often - will face little resistance; Dallas' defense ranks 29th against the run, according to PFF, and 30th in yards allowed per rush.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Jacksonville Jaguars)Cover machine Jake Luton was at it again over the weekend, giving the Packers - and those of us who picked them - a legitimate scare. But the Jaguars are better constructed to attack Green Bay than they are Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville won't have anywhere near the same success running against the Steelers. That puts Luton under increased pressure as Pittsburgh's ferocious pass rush goes up against a Jaguars team that struggles in pass protection.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (@ Las Vegas Raiders)Together, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have never lost a game when they have more than nine days to prepare. The Raiders came into Arrowhead Stadium and won in impressive fashion earlier this season, and they're playing great football right now. But they still own one of the league's worst secondaries. The Chiefs won't take anything lightly here, as another Las Vegas win will blow open the AFC West. With Mahomes and Co. getting an extra week to prepare, it's hard not to feel confident about Kansas City's chances.
4. Los Angeles Chargers (vs. New York Jets)This might be the only matchup this season in which the Jets aren't at a significant coaching disadvantage. Anthony Lynn has had a disastrous season in charge, and his clock management and decision-making skills have cost the Chargers on a weekly basis. New York showed signs of life before the bye, and with Lynn constantly getting in his team's way, not even Justin Herbert's sensational rookie tour can push the Chargers higher up this list.
5. New Orleans Saints (vs. Atlanta Falcons)I can't in good faith endorse the Saints over the Falcons with Jameis Winston starting his first game for New Orleans. With all due respect to Drew Brees, Winston's arm is almost certainly an upgrade. But he can't come close to matching Brees' poise and command of the Saints' offense. There will be an adjustment period, and Winston's penchant for turning the ball over portends more volatility than I'd like in a do-or-die survivor setting.
6. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals)This Seahawks defense might be bad enough to keep Seattle out of my top five all season. But the Cardinals - their electrifying offense notwithstanding - have now allowed at least 30 points in three straight games. This is a prime revenge spot for the Seahawks and a letdown one for Arizona after its last-second win over the Bills. Coming off his worst game of the season, Russell Wilson might explode Thursday night.
7. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Tennessee Titans)Lamar Jackson's critics have been out in full force after his horror show against a Patriots defense that made Joe Flacco look like Joe Namath. But the weather was working against Jackson, and the young Ravens quarterback has done enough to earn the benefit of the doubt. Mike Vrabel got the better of John Harbaugh in their January playoff meeting, but the Titans' defense just doesn't have the horses to keep up this time around.
8. Miami Dolphins (@ Denver Broncos)The Dolphins may never lose again. Forget what Tua Tagovailoa has done in just three career starts - though his poise, accuracy, and ability have all been as good as advertised. No, it's Miami's defense that has me jumping aboard the bandwagon. The Broncos have been totally unable to run the ball lately, and I can't see Drew Lock finding success against the formidable duo of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard in the Dolphins' secondary.
9. Carolina Panthers (vs. Detroit Lions)Teddy Bridgewater's health is my only concern here. Otherwise, I'd be bumping this well-coached Panthers team into the top five for a home tilt against a Lions unit that's anything but. The quit-on-Matt-Patricia era is well and truly underway, and I'll be looking to fade Detroit often over the final seven weeks of the season.
10. Cleveland Browns (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)Weather looks like it's going to be an issue again in Cleveland, which plays into the hands of the Browns and their relentless rushing attack. Getting key offensive weapons back still couldn't make the Eagles resemble anything close to a competent unit against the Giants, and there's little evidence to suggest a turnaround is imminent.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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