Canada could see 60,000 new COVID-19 cases a day in holiday-fuelled surge, health officials warn

OTTAWA - Canada could be staring at 60,000 new COVID-19 cases a day by the end of December if people continue to increase their social contacts into the upcoming holiday season, say federal health authorities.

It is a worst-case scenario, said top federal officials who released the grim new forecast Friday that show the second wave threatens to overwhelm contact tracers and the health system.

If people maintain current rates of contacts, Canada is on track to hit 20,000 daily cases in the next five or six weeks.

Only if Canadians act to immediately reduce their circles and movements can the caseload be kept to 10,000 a day or fewer, the model said.

In unveiling the new forecasts, Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer, said the second wave is much bigger than the first, with widespread community transmission, including now in many schools and long-term-care homes.

Even right now, the health care system in many jurisdictions is feeling the pressure," with health-care workers exhausted and elective procedures and surgeries being scaled back, Tam said.

Tam stressed the urgency to quickly bring infection rates down across the country."

She warned that if Canadians don't heed warnings, Canada could be on track to see the kinds of massive increase in infections that European countries like France and Belgium have experienced.

However, Tam also suggested she does not believe Canada is on that trajectory at the moment and can still avoid it.

The news Friday saw Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shift his own schedule. He did not join his health minister or the doctors at the Friday briefing, but reverted to speaking to reporters from outside his home at Rideau Cottage.

I don't want to be here, you don't want me to be here - we're all sick and tired of COVID-19," he said.

Trudeau made several impassioned pleas to Canadians to avoid gatherings of all sizes," but refused to criticize provinces like Quebec, which is allowing up to 10 people to gather for the holidays. He suggested there is still time to act to preserve some hope" for the holidays.

And while he insisted targeted shutdown measures in hot zones are key to ensuring the economy comes through the pandemic, he rejected the idea of another national lockdown as a blunt instrument" that he does not view as necessary.

Nor is using the federal emergencies act to close interprovincial travel, as B.C. Premier John Horgan has called for, said Trudeau. He pointed to the Atlantic premiers and leaders in the north that brought in travel restrictions without a federal hammer."

Each day over the past week, about 4,800 daily new cases have been reported nationally, a figure that's 15 per cent greater than the week before. And there have been about 70 deaths daily, including a few deaths among people in their 30s.

The rapid growth is being felt mainly in the six provinces outside the Atlantic bubble. The majority of new cases and deaths are being reported by Ontario and Quebec.

But Tam and her deputy Dr. Howard Njoo warned that cases arising in the Atlantic are concerning them too, like in Nova Scotia where authorities haven't been able to track the source of many new infections.

Patty Hajdu, the federal health minister, said, This wave is undeniably harder.

We are all tired we are all lonely and we all want our lives back, but we can't give up now," Hadju said. We see the light the potential of vaccines and spring, but we also have to get there first."

Across Canada, deaths and hospitalizations from COVID-19 continue to mount as the second wave resurgence spreads from younger adult populations into elderly groups and more vulnerable settings, like long-term-care homes.

While talk of possible vaccines has encouraged people, Tam reminded that less than one per cent of the Canadian population has tested positive to date, so the vast majority of Canadians are still susceptible to infection.

Tam said Canada is failing to control community transmission of the virus, which has spread into long-term-care homes, group living settings and hospitals, and is spreading in Indigenous communities. Those aged 80 years and older now have the highest incidence rate nationally.

Public health officials have detailed epidemiological data on only 72 per cent of cases. The data indicate that when COVID-19 was contracted in this country, the source of infection could not be identified in 32 per cent of cases.

Tam and Njoo said while schools are still fairly safe environments, if families have children in school, they should reduce their own contacts outside their households.

They said small family gatherings with immediate family members are still possible at Christmas if extra layers" of protection are used, like masking indoors and physical distancing. They pointed to Quebec, which is extending school breaks and urging people to try self-quarantines the week before and after a four-day holiday period in order to limit spread.

Njoo said it's like trying to strike a kind of social and moral contract" with people to limit their contacts in order to celebrate together, but both he and Tam stressed the need for people to strictly limit contacts, movements and travel.

Tam said you can actually refuse some family members," and have the talk" with those like a child who's away at university and wants to come home.

You have to plan ahead and be really firm," she said.

Tonda MacCharles is an Ottawa-based reporter covering federal politics for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @tondamacc