Is your Hamilton postal code a COVID hot spot?
The per cent of tests coming back positive for COVID-19 is four-times higher downtown.
At 8.0 per cent, L8N is one of nine postal codes to have a per cent positivity rate of 2.5 or above shows figures released by IC/ES, a not-for-profit Ontario research institute. Hamilton overall is 2.2.
The city has called a last-minute media update Friday for just after the province is expected to announce new restrictions for parts of Ontario - including potential lockdowns.
As it's looking, these measures they will have to be tough in the hardest-hit areas," said Premier Doug Ford on Thursday.
Hamilton is one of five red zone regions along with Halton, Peel, Toronto and York.
We're seeing concerning trends," said Ford. Our hospital ICUs are in jeopardy, our long-term care homes are at risk. We have some difficult but necessary decisions to make."
The premier's warning was echoed by Ontario's associate chief medical officer of health.
Overall we're heading in the wrong direction," Dr. Barbara Yaffe said. We have been saying this repeatedly for some time now. Over the last few days ... that feeling of concern and urgency has not diminished. In fact, for some areas it has intensified. We have to get these numbers down."
She stressed community transmission needs to be lower for schools to keep running.
If we can reduce the transmission in the community, we will have less in the schools," she said. We have considered schools as a very important priority to maintain open as long as possible."
In addition, the increased number of cases is endangering vulnerable seniors, and in turn the health-care system.
The infection is spreading into older age groups," she said. It started ... in the second wave with young people - 20 to 39. It is now hitting the older people. It's getting into long-term care, retirement homes and so on. We know that people particularly over the age of 60 and 65 are at higher risk for serious illness and, unfortunately, complications and death."
The spread to seniors is evident in Hamilton where 23 residents of long-term care and retirement homes have died in 16 days from Nov. 2 to Nov. 17. Hamilton has 12 ongoing outbreaks in seniors' homes.
A number of key metrics have decreased, particularly the reproduction rate, which went to 0.85 on Nov. 19 from 1.25 on Nov. 12. It's significant because cases exponentially increase when the rate is above 1.0.
The number of cases per 100,000 dropped to 43.7 from Nov. 9 to 15, compared to 56.7 from Nov. 4 to 10.
However, there are signs the numbers are headed up again as Hamilton reported 50 new infections Thursday for a total of 342 active cases.
In addition, Ontario now has 150 COVID patients in intensive care, which is the point when the health-care system starts to become strained.
If it goes over 150 ... it will impact negatively on people requiring ICU care for other reasons," said Yaffe. It is those particularly with elective procedures ... that are going to have to wait longer."
The IC/ES data shows the pandemic is not hitting the city equally. In postal code L8N, 8.0 per cent of tests came back positive from Nov. 8 to 14. It covers the Corktown and Stinson neighbourhoods from James Street South to just east of Wentworth Street South, and from King Street East to the base of the Mountain.
It is also the home of Hamilton Continuing Care and Baywoods Place Long-Term Care Home, which both have ongoing outbreaks with 68 cases between them.
Next at 4.7 per cent is L9K which is made up of parts of Meadowlands in Ancaster, as well as Scenic Drive to Highway 403 from Chedoke Golf Club to the Lincoln M. Alexander Parkway. It's home to Chartwell Willowgrove, which has the worst ongoing outbreak in the city with 69 cases and 13 deaths.
However, outbreaks alone can't explain the rates as none of the nine postal codes are in Dundas where a large outbreak is ongoing at St. Joseph's Villa.
There is also no outbreak related to L8E, where 4.5 per cent of tests came back positive in part of Stoney Creek, including Winona that stretches from Lake Ontario to nearly Ridge Road in parts and Highway 8 in others. It goes from just east of Fifty Road to Nash Road North.
Two postal codes with rates of 3.2 per cent are in west parts of Hamilton, while four between 2.5 and 2.8 are in the east.
The highest rate in Burlington is L7P at 3.2 per cent, which is from Guelph Line to Highway 6 and Highway 5 to the 403. In Haldimand and Norfolk, it is N3Y in Simcoe at 2.8 per cent.
Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com