NFL Week 11 best bets: Chiefs, Dolphins in ideal chalk spots
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We got back on track with a 2-1 record last week, bringing our year-long record in an unpredictable 2020 season back to .500. Here are my best bets for Week 11.
Dolphins (-3.5, 45) @ Broncos, 4:05 p.m. ETI'm betting the Dolphins until the market gives me a good reason not to. The betting public has faded Miami each of the past three weeks, but its surging defense has keyed a five-game win streak and a 5-0 run against the spread - the best active streak in the NFL. And, for whatever reason, this team is again undervalued in a promising spot against the underwhelming Broncos.
The Dolphins are tied for fourth in takeaways (15) and turnover margin (+5), which looms large against a Denver team with the most giveaways (21) and ranked second-worst in turnover differential (-12). The Broncos are 8-0 ATS when winning the turnover battle since Vic Fangio took over in 2019 - tied for the NFL's second-best mark in that span - but they're an abysmal 4-11-2 ATS in all other games, among the worst records by any team.
Drew Lock has engineered many of those turnovers, but his questionable status isn't necessarily good news for those backing Denver. Since drafting Lock in 2019, the Broncos are averaging 20.5 points with a 6-6 record in his 12 starts. The club is 4-9 with 17.1 points per game in 13 games without him. Whether it's an injured Lock or someone else, Denver's quarterback will have his hands full against Miami's opportunistic defense.
Pick: Dolphins -3.5
Bengals @ Washington (-2, 46.5), 1 p.m. ETI've backed the Bengals as much as anyone this year, but this line is selling Washington short. The team's offense came alive in the second half of last week's loss to the Lions, renewing optimism in Alex Smith after his 390-yard passing effort with zero turnovers.
On the other side, Joe Burrow wilted last week against the Steelers' elite front, which is the third time in the last five weeks a top-end defense thwarted the rookie signal-caller. Washington boasts a top-eight defense by DVOA and PFF team grades and the unit is just two weeks removed from recording five sacks on Giants quarterback Daniel Jones.
The Bengals will also be without star back Joe Mixon in addition to three assistant coaches who will miss Sunday's game for COVID-19-related reasons, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. While a thinned-out coaching staff may not a huge concern, it certainly doesn't help Cincinnati in an already uphill battle.
Pick: Washington -2
Chiefs (-7.5, 57) @ Raiders, 8:20 p.m. ETThis is a perfectly fine number on this game and I don't fault anyone for feeling like there's value grabbing the hook. However, I just can't justify fading the Chiefs in this revenge spot against a vulnerable division foe.
Six weeks ago, the Raiders got the best of their rivals in a 40-32 barn burner in Kansas City. Since then, the Chiefs have allowed 18.3 points per game and have had a full two weeks to prepare for Las Vegas' offense the second time around. Andy Reid is 21-9 ATS coming off a bye week in his coaching career and his team is 19-7-1 ATS in divisional games since 2016, including going 10-2 ATS in the second meeting.
Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes has rediscovered his MVP touch with 788 yards and nine touchdowns over his last two games. Mahomes should shred an already suspect Raiders defense that's dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak and will either be missing key starters or relying on them with little to no practice time.
Pick: Chiefs -7.5
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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