Week 12 player prop bets: Don't expect Matt Ryan to air it out

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We went 3-1 in last week's player props. Let's keep the momentum rolling this Sunday.

Here are the best looks for Week 12.

Matt Ryan under 39.5 pass attempts

The Falcons are catching points, starting running back Todd Gurley is out, and the market's expecting roughly eight touchdowns. Ryan has a good matchup, but his attempt total is inflated.

Atlanta has been an underdog five times this season. Ryan hasn't logged more than 40 attempts in any of them. In fact, the last time he had more than 40 in a game was back in Week 7.

Whether or not Gurley plays, Atlanta should still find success on the ground. The Raiders own the worst-ranked DVOA rush defense entering Week 12. That'll suppress Ryan's attempts and ultimately keep him under this number.

Christian Kirk over 54.5 receiving yards

Kirk has a lot working for him Sunday.

The Cardinals' receiving corps won't have receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who's seen 28 total targets over the last four games. That should open up a couple more for Kirk, who faces a Patriots secondary that's dead last in the league in both DVOA defense and explosive pass rate allowed.

Kirk's averaged 66.8 yards over his last six. He'll stay hot.

Aaron Rodgers' longest completion over 39.5 yards

When Rodgers meets the archrival Bears, you can mark the gunslinger down for at least one splash play.

Rodgers has shattered his long in five of the last six against the Bears, completing passes of 47, 49, 58, 60, and 75 yards. Chicago's secondary has been tremendous this season - the team ranks No. 4 in the NFL in DVOA pass defense - but it's been susceptible to the big play, ranking No. 17 in explosive pass rate.

Look for receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling or DaVante Adams to bring this one home.

Brandon Allen's longest completion under 35.5 yards

Allen gets his chance to start in place of rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, who suffered a season-ending injury last week.

The Bengals' passing game has been poor in 2020. The unit ranks No. 23 in DVOA offense and No. 29 in yards per completion (9.2). The Giants haven't made much noise in a weak NFC East, but the secondary has held its own, ranking No. 6 in explosive pass rate.

Allen averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt and 5.7 air yards per attempt in 2019. Don't expect him to take a ton of shots down the field.

Michael Pittman Jr. over 52.5 receiving yards

Pittman is catching fire as the season progresses.

After posting 77 combined yards in his first four games this season, the Colts rookie has 223 over the last three. He broke out in a big way against the Titans a few weeks ago, hauling in seven catches on eight targets for 101 yards, all of which were career highs.

Look for another huge outing from the USC product.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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