Best bets to secure No. 1 seed in AFC, NFC
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We're now 12 weeks through the NFL season, which means the race for the No. 1 seed in each conference is nearing the finish line. And locking up that top spot has never been more important than it is this season.
Since the NFL introduced the 12-team playoff format in 1990, 48 of the 60 Super Bowl contestants have benefited from a first-round bye, including each of the last seven champions. With only the top club from both the AFC and NFC securing a bye in the league's new 14-team format, the No. 1 seed has immense value, especially in a year with as much weekly volatility as this one.
Only six teams have a realistic path to earning the top spot in their respective conference, including just two in the AFC. Here are the odds to secure the No. 1 seed with our favorite value in each conference.
Who will earn the AFC's No. 1 seed?| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -150 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +100 |
| Buffalo Bills | +5000 |
| Tennessee Titans | +5000 |
| Cleveland Browns | +6600 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +10000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +15000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +15000 |
| Miami Dolphins | +15000 |
This is clearly a two-horse race between the Chiefs and Steelers, who are still undefeated despite a host of scheduling issues and a handful of close calls in recent weeks. Pittsburgh is rightfully priced as the favorite - the team ranks No. 1 in the NFL in point differential (+124) and turnover margin (+12) - and has a one-game lead over Kansas City, which won't get a chance to face the Steelers this year.
To that effect, how much of Pittsburgh's success is scheduling luck? The Steelers have faced the NFL's easiest schedule to this point, per Football Outsiders, though they face a slightly tougher slate over their final six games. Yet the same thing can be said about the Chiefs. They've faced the sixth-easiest schedule through Week 12 and now have an average schedule ahead, highlighted by road games against the Dolphins and Saints.
I don't see the Steelers finishing 16-0, if only because of the pressure that mounts game after game. Oddsmakers don't expect it, either, pricing a perfect run at 4-1 odds. Kansas City will be hard-pressed to run the table over its final five games, though, and it'll need to do that or get very lucky with Pittsburgh losses to overtake the top spot.
As for the other teams on this list? Don't bother. None have better than a 0.4% chance of earning the No. 1 seed, per Football Outsiders, which would translate to nearly 250-1 odds. Unless you can find a price like that, don't waste your money.
Pick: Steelers -150
Who will earn the NFC's No. 1 seed?| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | +100 |
| Green Bay Packers | +200 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +300 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +2000 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +5000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +10000 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +15000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +20000 |
| Chicago Bears | +30000 |
This is where things get interesting. The Saints are the favorites on paper, and advanced metrics give them better than 50% odds to pull it off. At a glance, it seems like an easy value play.
Color me skeptical. Remember when Taysom Hill scored two rushing touchdowns in his debut and the general public forgot about Drew Brees' extended injury? Fans also forgot about Hill's lack of touch through the air - which was on full display with an alarming underthrow to Emmanuel Sanders - and propensity for turnovers, including a lost fumble and near-interception against the Falcons. In Sunday's win over the Broncos, he looked like a pedestrian quarterback who could cost New Orleans a game or two down the stretch.
The Saints can't afford that with a one-game lead over the Packers, who hold the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to an impressive Week 3 win. Green Bay has played the sixth-toughest schedule thus far and faces one of the easiest down the stretch, with four of its five remaining games against teams below .500.
And then there are the Seahawks, who have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFC but are among the toughest teams to project on a weekly basis. Given the volatility of their defense and even of Russell Wilson, I'm reticent to pencil in wins against the Rams and 49ers to close the year. Shoot, even Washington's defense could give Wilson trouble in Week 15.
Green Bay is simply the best overall team among those three and the least likely to slip up down the stretch. Seattle plays too many close games for my liking, and New Orleans will have Hill leading the way for most, if not all, of its final five games. That sounds like a recipe for a misstep, which the Saints can't afford with the Packers on their heels.
Pick: Packers +200
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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