NFL Week 13 best bets: Fade the Bears, Texans in bad matchups

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We're feeling good after another 2-1 week heading into Week 13, which features a few questionable prices on bad teams. Here are my best bets for this week.

Lions @ Bears (-3, 45), 1 p.m. ET

I get why this line prices these teams as essentially equal, but good luck convincing me that's the case on Sunday.

The Lions enter this week with a new head coach in Darrell Bevell after two-and-a-half years of Matt Patricia blowing a lead in every other game. The Bears, meanwhile, may need their own coaching change after Matt Nagy called out the effort of his players.

He had reason to following Chicago's 16-point loss to the Packers that featured clear lapses on both sides of the ball. The Bears' defense is the only reason to ever bet on them, as their offense is worse than nearly every unit in the league, aside from the Jets' group. There's simply nothing to get on board with after the level of defense Chicago played last week, especially if Allen Robinson isn't at full strength.

Teams replacing unpopular coaches have experienced an instant jolt over the past two seasons, and Patricia certainly qualifies for that label. If Bevell can inject some life into his offense, this game won't be close.

Pick: Lions +3

Colts (-3, 51) @ Texans, 1 p.m.

It feels like I'm either betting on or against the Colts every week, depending on the matchup. This is clearly a spot to back them against a shorthanded Texans team in an unfamiliar situation.

Houston's splits with and without Will Fuller have been alarming since he came into the league in 2016, although at least Deshaun Watson could target DeAndre Hopkins in many of those games. Now, with Fuller suspended and Hopkins gone, Brandin Cooks and a rotation of also-ran receivers will be trying to break through against the Colts' fifth-ranked pass defense. I'm not buying it.

Indianapolis is drawing 100 times as much money at theScore Bet despite a narrow advantage in tickets, suggesting people are going all-in on the Colts in this spot. I am, too, as Indianapolis has held serve against the NFL's top clubs in recent weeks, and the Colts shouldn't struggle with their division rival.

Pick: Colts -3

Jaguars @ Vikings (-10, 52), 1 p.m.

Something about these Jaguars has me hooked. Aside from a blowout loss to the undefeated Steelers, Jacksonville has been defeated by a combined eight points against the Texans, Packers, and Browns since a Week 8 bye, and its offense finally showed some bite with Mike Glennon at the helm.

The market was too quick to jump off the Vikings following their 1-5 start, but now it's too quick to jump back on them after a mostly uninspiring stretch featuring tight wins over the Bears and Panthers, and a loss to the hapless Cowboys. Dalvin Cook is clearly playing through pain, too, which isn't what I'd want to see if I'm laying the points this weekend.

The Vikings are 0-3-3 against the spread in their last six games laying double digits, and they simply aren't built to blow teams out in a traditional sense. The Jags probably don't possess the firepower to pull off the outright upset, but this one should be close.

Pick: Jaguars +10

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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