Boundary busting? Hamilton plans for 820,000 people by 2051

Brenda Fletcher sells bags of apples on the edge of the orchard her family has owned for generations in rural Hamilton.

It's a brisk and overcast fall afternoon during a pandemic, but a steady trickle of customers drop by to pick up fresh produce.

The residential development that has massed on the peripheries of her Glanbrook farm in operation since 1866 has been good for business.

But it's not the lifestyle that you wanted," Fletcher adds, describing a sensation of being squeezed" by urban creep from the north and south.

It's just become too busy ... The traffic here is unbelievable. The speeding. The car accidents."

The orchard is about 50 metres south of Golf Club Road down Fletcher Road, as a sign at the intersection directs.

That's in the Greenbelt, a massive swath of protected land in southern Ontario, which also surrounds Binbrook, a rapidly urbanizing village down Highway 56.

But growing subdivisions that front onto Rymal Road East, north of Golf Club Road, could stride closer yet to Fletcher Fruit Farms if the city expands its urban boundary.

Local planning staff say the city will need to redraw the line that separates rural and urban Hamilton to accommodate 236,000 more people between next year and 2051.

By then, the province expects 820,000 people will call Hamilton home, as the Greater Golden Horseshoe's population swells to 15 million from about 10 million today.

The provincial growth plan requires the city to place at least 50 per cent of its future residential development within Hamilton's current urban area.

To achieve that, the city must escalate a planning practice known as intensification, which involves creating higher-density buildings and residential parcels in already built-up areas as opposed to sprawl.

Over the past 10 years, the city has corralled about 35 per cent of new homes into Hamilton's built-up area.

But even at a rate of 40 per cent, there won't be enough developable land in all of Hamilton for the expected boom, local planners note.

At 88,300 hectares, or 79 per cent, most of Hamilton's 112,830 hectares are rural. The vast majority, however, can't be developed because, like Fletcher's orchard, they're protected by the Greenbelt.

But Hamilton's so-called whitebelt lands, on the fringes of the urban boundary, could be. At roughly 1,600 developable hectares, they represent about five per cent of the city's vast rural expanse.

So if intensification is a must-do, how much beyond the provincial minimum of 50 per cent should Hamilton aspire to achieve?

City councillors are to consider a series of staff and consulting reports that explore that question during a special general issues committee meeting on Dec. 14.

Planners want the go-ahead to then take the findings to the public, industry groups and others with a stake in land-use planning for consultation before returning for final approval early next year.

This is the first step. This is about how much land could be needed," says Jason Thorne, the city's general manager of planning and economic development.

Then the big question becomes where, how do you phase it, and what are the development standards."

A land needs assessment - a key document in the city's second growth-related integrated development strategy (GRIDS 2) - concludes Hamilton has enough employment parcels to accommodate an expected 360,000 jobs by 2051.

But the city will have to expand its urban boundary, using most, if not all, of its whitebelt by 2051 to fit in enough homes for the expected population spike, the assessment finds.

Here's what city planners propose as options for consideration:

• An annual average intensification rate of 55 per cent over 30 years that requires roughly 1,600 hectares of the city's whitebelt lands;

• An average of 60 per cent intensification over the same period, resulting in an urban boundary expansion of about 1,300 hectares.

And this is where Hamilton's urban area could break into whitebelt lands:

• About 930 rural hectares in Elfrida, between Rymal and Golf Club, Trinity Church and Hendershot roads;

• Roughly 275 hectares north and south of Twenty Road East around Miles Road;

• Approximately 125 hectares on the south side of Twenty Road West and Garner Road;

• Roughly 270 hectares around Whitechurch Road, Miles Road and Airport Road.

But staff advise that no expansion whatsoever - which would mean limiting all growth to the current urban area - is a non-starter.

To do that, 81 per cent of all future residential units - or 89,760 of 110,320 - would have to be packed into the built-up area through intensification over the next 30 years.

That far exceeds" what consultant Lorius & Associates figures Hamilton's real estate market would bear for denser forms of housing as opposed to single-family homes, staff note.

Moreover, the denser housing type - roughly 75 per cent of new units would be apartments - wouldn't make for a balanced unit supply" in accordance with planning policy.

This finds a foundation in provincial changes that Thorne describes as leaving little wiggle room for municipalities.

We have to be able to demonstrate that the intensification that we're planning for can actually be accommodated from a market-demand standpoint."

The shift to base land needs on market demand in tandem with a prescribed mix of housing types results in a fairly constrained" local exercise.

Critics argue the changes, along with the mere requirement to identify land needs to 2051 - 10 years beyond the previous target of 2041 - have placed municipalities in a regulatory box that encourages sprawl.

This a province that is, by stealth, through small measures, pushing out our population," Coun. Maureen Wilson says.

That serves the development industry's interests" but not the environment, housing affordability or municipalities.

The more the city sprawls, the more natural areas and waterways are put in jeopardy, and the more expensive it becomes to maintain services, the west-end councillor says.

That's quite frankly why Hamilton is in the financial quagmire that it is."

The Ministry of Municipal Affairs says extending forecasts to 2051 will make sufficient land available to accommodate an appropriate range of mix of uses to meet projected needs for up to 25 years."

Revised forecasts would provide updated numbers for municipalities to plan and manage their growth, including determining land and infrastructure needs. This supports our government's priority of increasing housing supply and promoting economic recovery ...," a spokesperson told The Spectator.

But Lynda Lukasik, executive director of Environment Hamilton, isn't convinced the city has to burst through its urban boundary.

She acknowledges the province has put cities in a very difficult position" but doesn't buy the consultant's take about Hamilton's appetite for denser housing.

Lukasik, who has a PhD in urban and regional planning, points to stacked townhouses being scooped up" in lower Stoney Creek.

And that says to me, this stuff is selling," she says. If the market demand is used to justify crazy-low density, that's B.S."

Like Wilson, Lukasik flags the negative effects of sprawl: loss of agricultural land, increased greenhouse gas emissions, compromised watersheds - ingredients and symptoms of the climate emergency.

I think now, more than ever before, we need to be really stopping and thinking about what the implications of doing this are."

For Lukasik, a plan that calls for higher density in the Centennial Parkway and Queenston Road area around Eastgate Square, and up to the future Confederation Park GO station, makes perfect sense.

That should happen at other shopping plazas with big parking lots like Lime Ridge Mall, she says.

To me, that is what we should be prioritizing over and above continuing to blow the boundaries out."

And Lukasik singles out Elfrida as a poster child of what shouldn't happen.

Once a sleepy farming crossroads at Upper Centennial Parkway and Rymal Road East, in recent years, it has exploded with subdivisions and big-box outlets.

A failure within the existing urban boundary, the burgeoning area is not exactly a pedestrian-, cyclist- or transit-friendly community, Lukasik argues.

Coun. Brad Clark, who represents upper Stoney Creek, is concerned what a spike in population will do to the already busy corner of Ward 9.

That includes the immense pressure" of cars that could come with thousands of new residents, which is why Clark says he asked for the transportation study that's underway.

That should have happened before subdivisions like Summit Park started to sprout on farmers' fields, he says.

With the widening of Rymal Road, sidewalks will be built on the north and south sides, replacing stretches of gravel shoulders where people wait at bus stops or walk to restaurants and stores.

We induced commercial traffic; we induced residents to walk to to these locations, but we didn't provide the transportation infrastructure to do it safely, and that's on us, and we are fixing it, but it should have been done a long time ago."

How people move around will be a crucial element of the growth planning exercise ahead, Jason Thorne says.

This is now about a city of 820,000 people. That's 50 per cent growth in our population, and if we're going to accommodate a couple of thousand units every year through intensification, where you're going to want to focus that is on areas where they can take advantage of higher-order transit."

That's what a proposal for bus rapid transit routes connecting the Mountain, downtown, Stoney Creek, Ancaster, Mount Hope and Waterdown are meant to achieve.

For Mayor Fred Eisenberger, a light rail transit line from McMaster to Eastgate Square must also be a cornerstone of Hamilton's growth plan.

Eisenberger, a stalwart proponent of the frustrated LRT plan, says light rail would set the stage in its lower-city corridor for the density that's needed to curb sprawl.

It's a chicken-and-egg scenario: the LRT would inspire higher density and higher density will be inspired because of the LRT, and so that's why LRT's been so important."

Eisenberger has expressed misgivings about expanding the urban boundary in the past and says he remains reluctant" to do so until such time that it's absolutely necessary."

Part of planning staff's work ahead will be to decide how to phase growth in the years leading to 2051.

But already developers, buoyed by recent provincial changes to planning policy, are applying pressure.

One consortium has pushed council to authorize an urban boundary expansion at Twenty Road West for a 2,500-unit development with the municipal growth exercise still unfolding.

Right now, the city's in dire need of housing. It needs jobs. It's in need of revenue. This application's a gaping opportunity," John Corbett, a planning consultant representing the Upper West Side Landowner Group, said this past summer at their vacant land in Glanbrook.

That echoes the Ontario government's motivation for the policy that allows developers to apply for boundary expansions of up to 40 hectares at a time ahead of municipal comprehensive reviews.

We need to make sure that land is ready for development when it's needed, where it makes sense, while making sure it's the right kind of development," a ministry spokesperson said.

In October, council rejected the consortium's push for an official plan amendment to allow for privately driven urban boundary expansion applications ahead of the city-wide review of growth options.

Instead, they directed staff to confirm" that the Twenty Road West lands and other whitebelt areas would be considered for growth during the review.

Downtown Hamilton has its share of parking lots, but most of the room to grow is upward.

And if there was a lull in residential highrise construction, cranes in the core signal a resurgence.

The towers downtown, we are starting to see more of that, for sure," says senior project manager Heather Travis, noting a recent revamp of the core's secondary plan has helped encourage the burst in highrise activity.

The Dec. 14 report, which Travis authored, notes nearly 700 units were built downtown between 2010 and 2014, and 1,200 units between 2015 and 2018.

In the earlier span, apartment units represented an average of 37 per cent of the annual intensification unit construction. In the subsequent period, that average shot up to 70 per cent.

Travis likens it to a bit of a crystal ball exercise," but notes planners hope to see intensification bolstered in the Centennial Parkway and West Harbour areas as well.

She expects any parts of the city approved for urban expansion will differ notably from the traditional single-family format that has predominated Hamilton's residential fabric for many decades.

Think more townhouses, stacked or back-to-back, and smaller lots.

Established neighbourhoods, however, will see what Travis calls compatible and sensitive change."

It could be achieved with second-dwelling units, or granny flats (staff are working on policies for that, as well).

The density could also come through severed lots and more multi-residential, low-rise buildings.

But Travis emphasizes the buildup is meant to be gradual - a generational shift over 30 years.

We're talking about the city your children, or in some cases, your grandchildren are going to be living in, and where they're going to be buying their first house."

If that's done well, and within the existing urban boundary, the results could be fantastic, Lynda Lukasik offers.

Picture denser neighbourhoods, connected to efficient transit and services within walking distance of home on tree-lined streets with bike lanes.

At the end of the day, if we get all of those pieces right, my gosh, imagine what the quality of life is going to be like within neighbourhoods done right within the urban boundary."

It would also mean less of that squeezed" feeling for Brenda Fletcher, not quite on the edge of urban Hamilton in the Greenbelt.

Fletcher figures she and her husband, Kevin, will be the last in a long line of family members to work the orchard.

Unfortunately, my husband and I are the last to be farming because my kids wanted their own careers," says Fletcher, 55.

She expects it will be up to their three children to decide what to do with the land, which dates to the family's Empire Loyalist roots in the 1700s.

In the meantime, Fletcher muses about leaving the farm to travel in coming years, as the city creeps closer to their protected rural doorstep.

I figured I've worked hard my entire life," Fletcher says. Time to enjoy it and see the country."

Teviah Moro is a Hamilton-based reporter at The Spectator. Reach him via email: tmoro@thespec.com