Patriots-Rams best bets: No love for Cam in L.A.

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We swept our best bets in Tuesday's game, and we'll look to ride that momentum into Thursday after being deprived of TNF last week.

Here's what we've got for a cross-conference matchup with major playoff implications as the Patriots visit the Rams.

Alex Kolodziej

Rams team total over 24.5

Sure, Bill Belichick made life miserable for Jared Goff in Super Bowl LIII, but personnel was also crucial. And there's a noticeable difference between New England's 2018 defense and its current one.

The Patriots are No. 23 in the league in DVOA defense this season. Los Angeles ranks No. 4 in DVOA offense and has played the seventh-toughest schedule. New England will arguably be the easiest opponent the Rams' offense has faced since the Cowboys (No. 30 in DVOA) in Week 1.

Goff and Sean McVay will have infinitely more fun this time around.

Cam Newton under 44.5 rush yards

I'll go under on Newton's yards against a dominant L.A. front. The Rams pace the NFL in DVOA rush defense and rank fourth in explosive rush rate allowed.

Star defensive tackle Aaron Donald is going to wreak havoc up the middle; there's no way around it. If the Rams can force Newton to run sideways instead of up the alleys as he wants, the Patriots signal-caller will finish comfortably under this number.

Alex Moretto

Rams win first half and game (-110)

Just twice this season have the Patriots faced defenses that cracked PFF's top 10 - the Broncos and 49ers. New England scored one touchdown and managed a combined 18 points over those two games, with Newton throwing for just 255 total yards and five interceptions.

Public perception of New England is high after the Patriots thumped the Chargers 45-0 for their fourth win in five games. But the competition hasn't exactly been fierce for Belichick and Co., and a Rams team ranked eighth offensively and third defensively by PFF is a massive step up in class.

Donald and Jalen Ramsey will ensure this is a long night for Newton and the rest of the Patriots' offense, which will find itself in a lot of obvious passing situations thanks to a defense that's been torched by the league's more efficient attacking units.

There are lots of ways we can use this script - I really like the Patriots' team total under 20 (-105), Rams -5 (-110), and Newton to throw an interception (-120). But my favorite bet on the board is for the Rams to dominate this game from start to finish. Getting L.A. to win the first half and game at -110 feels like stealing.

C Jackson Cowart

Josh Reynolds under 32.5 receiving yards

Reynolds' time as the Rams' No. 3 receiver may be coming to an end after he was on the field for just 46% of Los Angeles' offensive snaps in Week 13. It was the fourth-year wideout's lowest share of the campaign and notably lower than that of rookie Van Jefferson (48%), who tied his season highs with four catches on five targets.

Reynolds has fallen short of this yardage mark in two of his last three games and faces a Patriots secondary allowing the seventh-fewest receiving yards to opposing pass-catchers. This is neither the time nor the matchup to bet high on Reynolds.

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