NFL upset of the week: Washington getting slighted vs. 49ers

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Each week during the NFL season, we'll focus on one underdog with a chance to pull off the outright upset. We're on fire after buying the Lions (+140) as road underdogs against the Bears, which brings us to 6-6 on moneyline underdogs with +4.7 units won.

We'll try to make it four straight this week with Washington (+150), which is being seriously undervalued against an underwhelming 49ers squad.

Washington is worth your attention

If you've dismissed the entire NFC East this season - and I can't blame you for doing so - then you're missing out on one of the hottest teams in football. Since losing to the Rams in Week 5, Washington has gone 5-1-1 against the spread while outscoring its opponents by 8.14 points per game.

Much of that is thanks to a dominant defense, which ranks fourth in DVOA and second in PFF grades while being elite by standard metrics, too. Washington held the Steelers to 17 points in its stunning win Monday, the fifth time in seven games that it's held its opponent to 20 points or less.

Washington is still a work in progress offensively, though Alex Smith has been exactly the stabilizing force this offense needed. The team has averaged 27.8 points since his first start in Week 10, which would tie the Bills for the eighth-best mark over a full season. That level of production is more than enough with the way this defense is playing.

49ers struggling amid injuries

On the other side is San Francisco, which has done little to convince me that it's worth being the clear favorite in this matchup. The 49ers have just one win in their last five games, which not-so-coincidentally coincides with injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle.

San Francisco's offense has been predictably stagnant, but its defense hasn't played well in any of those losses, either. The 49ers have allowed at least 27 points four times since Week 8, tied for the third-most by any team in that stretch. That won't cut it when their offense is averaging just 22.2 points in six games without Garoppolo, and they've posted a 2-4 record in those contests as a result.

Nick Mullens has been unreliable in relief and is simply ill-equipped to deal with the pressure coming his way. Among the 30 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks, Mullens ranks 13th in passer rating when kept clean (109.4) and 25th when pressured (48.2), per PFF. Washington is tied for the third-most sacks (36) and should make it a long day for Mullens.

Why Washington will win

These teams are virtually identical by most advanced metrics, though that takes into account the first half of the season when the Niners were healthy and Washington was floundering. Times have changed, yet oddsmakers are pricing this like an early-season matchup.

Even the regular home-field bump doesn't apply here, as the 49ers settle into their new home in Arizona with no fans, either. Not only is Washington currently the better team, but it's also the better bet to win Sunday.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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