Hamilton hits record-breaking 26 COVID outbreaks
Hamilton has a record-breaking 26 ongoing outbreaks of COVID-19 as provincial forecasting shows restrictions have failed to keep people home.
There's more and more people out and around," said Ontario's chief medical officer of health, Dr. David Williams. We've got to drop that considerably down ... The action around on the streets and the highways is that it looks like it is normal times."
Hamilton's surge of COVID cases shows no sign of letting up, with 81 new infections reported Thursday for a total of 620 active cases. Rising case counts is a trend across Ontario with projections showing anywhere from 2,000 to 15,000 new cases a day by January - depending on the rate of growth.
The current set of restrictions ... have not had as much impact," said Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. However, a relaxation of public health interventions at this point ... will likely lead to an even higher case growth."
Five more Hamilton seniors have died as COVID continues its devastating spread through long-term care.
Forecasting - done in part by McMaster University - estimates more than 25 COVID deaths a day in Ontario within a month.
Twenty-five deaths may seem like a small number a day, but it is significant enough to put it among the important causes of death in the province on a daily basis," said Brown.
The rapid rise of hospitalizations persists, with 13 additional COVID patients in Hamilton hospitals on Thursday compared to Wednesday. Numbers have tripled at Hamilton Health Sciences in less than two weeks.
Ontario is now within striking distance" of the number of intensive care unit (ICU) beds occupied at the height of the first wave.
When ICUs become heavily affected by COVID like this, you do really start to see interruptions in service, including necessary and emergency service," said Brown. We're over the threshold in which we believe we have to start cancelling and delaying elective surgery."
Hamilton hospitals haven't started ramping down care at this point.
The critical issue here is staffing," said Brown. Every one of these beds requires staffing by highly trained nurses and physicians ... It's as much an issue of how many people we have as it is of the actual beds."
Key metrics continue to climb in Hamilton, including the weekly rate of new cases per 100,000, which is now at 87.3 compared to 78.4 from Nov. 23 to Nov. 29. The per cent of tests coming back positive is about four per cent compared to last week's 3.2. The reproduction number is 1.13, which predicts continuing exponential growth.
A prolonged period of days just slightly above 1.0 will lead to a significant growth in cases," said Brown.
The all-time high of 26 ongoing outbreaks includes five schools and daycares, five workplaces, two community agencies and 14 institutions, which are mostly seniors' homes.
Chartwell Willowgrove in Ancaster remains the city's deadliest pandemic outbreak, now at 94 infections and 18 deaths after a woman in her late 90s died on Dec. 8.
The city's largest-ever COVID-19 outbreak, at Grace Villa on the east Mountain, has hit 126 infections and 10 deaths after a woman in her early 90s died on Dec. 8.
St. Joseph's Villa in Dundas has now had seven residents die in two separate outbreaks after a woman in her early 90s and a man in his mid 80s both died on Dec. 8.
I think what is happening during the pandemic is that the real conditions for both the residents and staff have been revealed because of this unbelievably high rate of deaths," said University of Windsor researcher James Brophy. There is really immediate steps that need to be taken in terms of staffing, levels of protection and government regulations if we are going to stem what is going on in long-term care."
The fifth death reported Thursday was a man in his early 90s who died Dec. 9 in a fast-growing outbreak at Juravinski Hospital, where 27 have tested positive on three units.
The city's pandemic death toll is 107 - or three per cent of cases.
Five new outbreaks were reported Thursday, including two workplaces: Sterling Honda at 1495 Upper James St., where four staff have tested positive, and All Tool Manufacturing Inc. on 143 Brockley Dr., where three staff are infected.
Three more seniors' homes are also in outbreak: Shalom Village at 70 Macklin St. N. has one resident and two staff infected, Alexander Place in Waterdown has had one staff member test positive, and the Meadowlands Retirement Residence in Ancaster has one case in a resident.
An outbreak at the pumping station construction project at the Woodward Wastewater Treatment Plant is now over.
By far the largest outbreaks are at seven seniors' homes that have 400 cases between them. Public health has issued infection control orders at five of them.
Out of control" is how Michael Hurley describes the long-term care outbreaks.
The reality is people are afraid to speak out and the truth would only help the quality of care," said Hurley, president of the Ontario Council of Hospital Unions at the Canadian Union of Public Employees.
He says workers are so scared of reprisals that many backed out of being anonymously interviewed for a study, Sacrificed: Ontario Health Care Workers in the Time of COVID-19, that Hurley co-authored with Brophy and University of Windsor researcher Margaret Keith.
Women make up the overwhelming majority of front-line health-care workers in Ontario," said Keith. Many are racialized or a recent immigrant. Many are in part-time or precarious positions. This leaves them particularly vulnerable."
She said, Health-care workers are desperate for protection from COVID and from the often back-breaking and soul-crushing working conditions they are having to endure."
Brophy pointed out that whistleblower protection is so weak that it was the military that revealed disturbing conditions in long-term care outbreaks.
The workers who did take part in the study reported that the risk of contracting COVID-19 and infecting family members has created intense anxiety ... Fear coupled with understaffing and increased workload has resulted in exhaustion and burnout," said Brophy.
In Hamilton's ongoing institutional outbreaks alone, 165 staff are infected with COVID. Half of those are at two homes: Grace Villa has 50 infected staff while Chartwell Willowgrove has had 33 test positive.
Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com