Rein-in COVID spread or face Christmas in lockdown, infectious diseases expert says

A green Christmas is off the table in Hamilton but a grey, locked-down one is not.

Hamilton was spared Friday from the lockdown many have been bracing for - Windsor-Essex and York weren't so lucky and join Toronto and Peel in the grey-lockdown" zone Monday. Still, one expert is warning Hamiltonians a holiday lockdown will be unavoidable" unless we rein-in COVID spread.

Dominik Mertz, associate professor in the division of infectious diseases at McMaster, said while Windsor and York both have higher case numbers and a higher test positivity - two of the metrics the province follows closely - we're not far behind.

We continue to go up in both of these metrics, slowly but steadily, and if this trend continues, we will be in lockdown if not in the next few days, then in a week from now," Mertz said. In addition, the hospital outbreaks result in us having the health-care system as a bottleneck now, too, where we are at risk to soon have to reduce scheduled/non-urgent care."

This week, Hamilton hit a record-breaking 26 active outbreaks, including one at Grace Villa long-term care home on the Mountain, which had 127 cases in residents and staff as of Friday. Eleven residents have died. An outbreak at Juravinski Hospital continues to grow and on Friday, spread to two new units, now affecting five total. There are 39 cases - 21 in patients, 16 in staff and two in learners."

Another all-time high: 45 COVID patients in hospital at Hamilton Health Sciences. The previous record, 41, was set Tuesday. Ten patients are in hospital at St. Joe's.

Hamilton reported two new deaths Friday: a woman in her early 80s from Grace Villa and a woman in her early 70s who lived in the community. Both died Thursday. The city has recorded a total of 109 COVID deaths since the pandemic began.

There were 27 new cases Friday, bringing our total cases to 3,932 and active cases to 574. Eighty-two per cent of cases are considered resolved.

Last week, Hamilton's medical officer of health imposed new restrictions on the city which came into effect Dec. 7. The restrictions include capacity limits and screening at shopping malls, retail businesses and workplaces.

Health Minister Christine Elliott was asked Friday if Hamilton's additional measures factored into the province's decision to keep the region in red. Elliott said the province considers a number of factors, including hospital capacity and community spread, when shifting regions into new zones. Local medical officers of health are consulted before decisions are made, she added.

Hamilton public health spokesperson Jacqueline Durlov said Friday that while Hamilton's numbers have been higher in recent weeks than we have seen in the past, they have remained relatively stable."

For now, we are staying with these restrictions in order to allow local businesses and workplaces to get accustomed to them, as well as allow enough time to see changes in our numbers," she said.

While the threshold for moving a region into lockdown remains unclear, the metrics that forced Hamilton into red continue to rise.

Locally, Hamilton is at 88.7 new cases per 100,000 population this week. To be in green - the least stringent level of public health measures under COVID - this number needs to be below 10. Our rate of positivity for COVID tests is at four per cent. To be in the green zone, this number needs to be below 0.5. Hamilton's reproduction rate - the rate at which someone with COVID spreads it to others - is 1.13. To be in green, this number needs to be below 1.0.

Hamilton has been in the red zone since Nov. 16. This zone carries the most severe restrictions before lockdown. Regions remain in zones for at least 28 days, or two incubation periods, during which they can't be bumped into less restrictive zones but can be bumped up. Technically, our 28 days are up on Dec. 14.

Durlov said moving into a lower level - orange, yellow or green - would require a considerable drop" in case numbers.

Katrina Clarke is a Hamilton-based reporter at The Spectator. Reach her via email: katrinaclarke@thespec.com