Saturday's NFL best bets: How to bet Bills-Broncos, Panthers-Packers
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What are we even supposed to do tomorrow? Hopefully you have eight screens in the house because between the conference championship games, a full slate of college basketball, and an NFL doubleheader, there's a buffet of sports for bettors to feast on.
You can't possibly have time to cap it all, so here's how we're betting Saturday's NFL slate.
Alex KolodziejBills-Broncos under 49.5
Whew, this is an awfully high total. I understand Buffalo warrants this type of number, but Denver? Really? This play is one of my favorite all weekend.
The Bills' defense is gradually improving. A unit that was once No. 30 in the league in DVOA defense is now No. 16 after allowing south of 20 points per game over the last three. Denver's offense has been horrific this year, grading out as the second-worst unit in football, behind only the Jets.
This should be a patented Vic Fangio game on defense for a Broncos squad that's been statistically better than the Bills. The market's expecting somewhat of a shootout, but I don't see it. Take the under on this generous number.
Alex MorettoBroncos +6.5, under 49.5
In what is one of the worst situational spots of the entire season, I'm on the Broncos in a big way here. Not only will it be my biggest bet of the week, it's going to be one of my biggest of the entire season.
Let's break it down. The Bills are coming off back-to-back prime-time wins, including an emotionally draining victory over the Steelers on Sunday night less than a week ago. Now they have to travel somewhat across the country to a difficult place to play in a prime letdown spot. It's also a quintessential lookahead situation before their trip to Foxboro next week for a Monday night showdown against AFC East rivals New England.
Nothing against the Bills, but you need to understand how hard it's going to be to get up for this game and find the same intensity they had just six days ago.
This is going to be a typical ugly December game in Denver, with the Bills struggling to get going. I see it as a 20-17 game either way, with the Broncos worth a small sprinkle on the moneyline, and the score never coming close to reaching this absurdly high total.
Panthers-Packers: Robert Tonyan anytime touchdown scorer (+165)
Tonyan has carved out a prominent role in the Packers' offense. The return of Allen Lazard and increased involvement of Marquez Valdes-Scantling have done little to deter Aaron Rodgers from looking his way.
The tight end is as consistent as they come, with four successive weeks of five targets and a touchdown. Not only has he scored in four straight - Rodgers loves looking his way in the red zone - but he's found the end zone nine times on the season.
The Panthers have allowed a league-high 75 receptions to tight ends this season, and given Tonyan's involvement in the offense and knack for finding the end zone, I'll gladly scoop this up at a friendly price.
C Jackson CowartBills -6
The Broncos' win last week over the Panthers was impressive - it was a deviation from the norm for an offense that has struggled all year. But Denver still hasn't shown it can beat a good team.
This year, the Broncos have played eight teams that entered this week with a winning record. They lost seven of them by an average of 15.9 points and recorded their lone win over the Dolphins by flustering rookie Tua Tagovailoa in his second career road start.
They'll struggle to do the same against Josh Allen, who's averaging three total touchdowns over his last five games and will pose a tough test for a Broncos team that was forced to cancel Friday's practice in an already short week. The Bills have covered five straight, and they're in a favorable spot to extend that streak to six games on Saturday.
Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+115)
Remember when the Panthers' defense made Drew Lock look like the second coming of John Elway? It was the fourth time over the last five games that Carolina allowed three or more passing touchdowns. Now it has to corral Rodgers on a short week, in a game the Packers need to stay atop the NFC.
Rodgers currently leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (39) and has thrown for at least three scores in 10 of his 13 starts this year, including seven of his last eight. Nothing about this number makes sense, and the plus-money only makes it sweeter.
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