NFL Week 16 best bets: Texans not worth the price as big favorites
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Another 2-1 week against the spread brings us to 20-15-1 (+3.5 units) on the season with a 9-3 ATS record over the last four weeks. Here are my best bets for Week 16.
Dolphins (-3, 47.5) @ Raiders, Dec. 26 @ 8:15 p.m. ETI don't care if you move the Dolphins game to Saturday night or Wednesday morning - I'm betting it, and I'm making money on it. Miami is now an NFL-best 11-3 ATS after last week's win over the Patriots, which I had as one of my best bets last week despite sharp money suggesting otherwise.
I don't quite understand this line, either. Derek Carr will be just nine days removed from a "significant" groin injury that could have kept him out for two weeks. Instead, he'll return against a ferocious Dolphins defense that ranks first in takeaways (26) and third in blitz percentage (42.9%).
Tua Tagovailoa has played well against below-average NFL defenses, so he should have little trouble against the Raiders, who rank fifth-worst in yards per play (6.0) and net yards per pass attempt (7.0). I know I sound like a broken record, but I love the Dolphins once again.
Pick: Dolphins -3
Bengals @ Texans (-7.5, 45), Dec. 27 @ 1 p.m.Can someone explain this line to me? I know one of these teams is led by Deshaun Watson and the other by ... Ryan Finley? Brandon Allen? Perhaps that alone is enough to jack this price up to above a touchdown.
If you actually observe how these teams are playing on the field, though, it's hard to justify. The Texans (5-9 ATS) have been one of the NFL's worst bets this year and have just four outright wins - against the Jaguars (twice), Patriots, and Lions. They're two weeks removed from getting blasted by the Bears, and now they're giving 7.5 points to a Bengals team that just beat the Steelers in prime time.
Yes, Cincinnati's offense is a train wreck, but its defense has held four of its last five opponents to 20 points or fewer, and its offense finally showed an identity in Monday's strong rushing effort. Houston's run defense is almost as bad as its historically inept rushing offense, and it hardly deserves to be priced as such an aggressive favorite.
Pick: Bengals +7.5
Bills (-7, 46.5) @ Patriots, Dec. 28 @ 8:15 p.m.If any team does deserve to be giving more than a touchdown this week, it's the Bills, who are playing like one of the best teams in the league. Since its bye week, Buffalo has ripped off four straight wins by double digits - most recently beating the Steelers by 11 in prime time and the Broncos by a whopping 27 points on the road.
That stretch helped bump the Bills up to No. 3 in weighted DVOA with the third-highest estimated wins (10.2), suggesting this 11-3 start is for real. The same goes for the Patriots (6.2), who are every bit as vulnerable as their 6-8 record suggests with a bottom-10 offense and defense to show for it.
New England has looked apathetic for two weeks now, and that was before it was eliminated from playoff contention for the first time since 2008. Expect the Bills to take advantage in a statement win under the lights.
Pick: Bills -7
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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