Wild-card stat leaders odds, best bets: Allen, Taylor worth betting to pace field
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Few weekends are more exciting in the NFL than the wild-card round, which will feature two additional games this year to set up an absolute betting bonanza. It's also an ideal opportunity to cash in on player futures, which offer unique value within a smaller field.
Here are the odds to lead the weekend in passing, rushing, and receiving yards and our favorite picks for each.
Who will lead in passing yards?| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +225 |
| Tom Brady | +350 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +400 |
| Drew Brees | +1000 |
| Philip Rivers | +1000 |
| Russell Wilson | +1000 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | +1400 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +1800 |
| Baker Mayfield | +2000 |
| Alex Smith | +2000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +3000 |
It's easy to pick Josh Allen and move on, but he really is the right choice. The Bills quarterback ranks sixth in passing yards per game (284) and has topped 300 yards in three of his last five games. He also faces a decent matchup - the Colts have allowed 300 passing yards or more in five of their last seven games and could be without their best pass-rusher and No. 2 cornerback.
The only other quarterback worth a look here is Ben Roethlisberger, based solely on the matchup. The Browns have allowed 247.6 passing yards per game - third-most of any playoff team - and watched Mason Rudolph torch their secondary for 315 yards a week ago. Still, Roethlisberger managed just 162 yards against Cleveland in Week 6 and is priced too short here to recommend.
Pick: Josh Allen (+225)
Who will lead in rushing yards?| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | -150 |
| Nick Chubb | +500 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +700 |
| J.K. Dobbins | +900 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1300 |
| Cam Akers | +1400 |
| Chris Carson | +1400 |
| Ronald Jones | +1400 |
| David Montgomery | +1400 |
| James Conner | +2000 |
| Antonio Gibson | +2000 |
| Zack Moss | +2500 |
I get why Derrick Henry is priced as the prohibitive favorite - he paced the NFL with 126.7 rushing yards per game this year and averaged almost 150 yards in three playoff games a year ago. Still, he isn't worth the price against the Ravens, who haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since facing Henry in Week 11 and will surely game plan around the star back after last year's fiasco.
My eyes are on Jonathan Taylor, who's averaged 123.5 rushing yards in his last six games and torched the Jaguars for 253 yards in Week 17. He's also got a plus matchup this week against a Bills defense that gave up 200-plus yards to the Chiefs and Cardinals and allowed at least 5 yards per carry in five of its last 11 games.
Want a longer shot than Taylor? Try Lamar Jackson, who finished the season ninth in rushing yards (1,005) and has rushed for at least 50 yards in 12 of his 15 starts this year. He's averaging 86 yards over his past four games and rushed for 143 yards against the Titans in last year's postseason.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor (+700)
Who will lead in receiving yards?| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | +300 |
| Allen Robinson | +600 |
| Michael Thomas | +600 |
| Chris Godwin | +1000 |
| A.J. Brown | +1200 |
| Chase Claypool | +1400 |
| Terry McLaurin | +1400 |
| DK Metcalf | +1400 |
| Diontae Johnson | +1800 |
| Tyler Lockett | +1800 |
| Corey Davis | +2000 |
| Jarvis Landry | +2000 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | +2000 |
| Robert Woods | +2000 |
| Mark Andrews | +2500 |
| Cooper Kupp | +2500 |
| T.Y. Hilton | +2800 |
| Marquise Brown | +3000 |
Stefon Diggs has been on an absolute tear this year, leading the NFL in receiving yards (1,535) and receptions (127). He's recorded at least 130 receiving yards in three of his last four games and faces a Colts secondary that will be without Rock Ya-Sin on Saturday.
Still, I'm not a fan of laying such a short price on something so volatile. That's why I've set my sights on Diontae Johnson, who has at least eight catches in five of Roethlisberger's last six starts and gets to face a Browns secondary allowing 175.3 yards per game to opposing wideouts, eighth-most in the NFL.
What about a shot on Marquise Brown? The Ravens speedster was held off the board in a Week 11 meeting with the Titans, but he's always two catches away from pacing the field and faces an opportune matchup against Tennessee, which has allowed the fourth-most yards to opposing receivers (193.8). He's not our favorite choice, but this price makes him hard to ignore.
Pick: Diontae Johnson (+1800)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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