Wild Card Weekend player prop guide: Matchups to exploit in Sunday's games

We looked at the biggest strengths and weaknesses for each defense - as well as the matchups to exploit - in Saturday's games here.

Now let's get into Sunday's slate so you can properly attack the player prop market.

Ravens (-3.5, 55) @ Titans, Jan. 10 @ 1:05 p.m.

It's the weekend's most intriguing game in this market because the Ravens' matchup against the Titans' secondary is the most lucrative - but will John Harbaugh exploit it? Tennessee allowed the fourth-most completions and passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, as well as the most passing touchdowns. It's also allowed the second-most receptions, fourth-most yards, and third-most touchdowns to wide receivers.

Against any other team we'd be loading up on overs at the quarterback and wide receiver position, but Baltimore is very stubborn in its approach. The Ravens employ a low-volume passing attack and don't like to stray much from the ground game. There's plenty of opportunity for Lamar Jackson to sail over a low total of 203.5 yards and 17.5 completions, provided Harbaugh lets him. This could be a big Marquise Brown (o/u 47.5 yards and 4.5 receptions) game as well, but can we trust the Ravens to attack through the air?

Defensively, the Ravens adopt something of a bend-but-don't-break mentality. They aren't near the top in fewest yards allowed, but they're a strong scoring unit. Baltimore's allowed the second-lowest number of passing touchdowns by quarterbacks, the fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs, and the third-fewest receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Derrick Henry is -225 to score a touchdown on Sunday, but he didn't see the end zone until overtime against the Ravens in Week 11 and was kept out of it altogether in last year's playoff meeting.

There's one more fact worth noting, given Jackson's rushing ability: Ryan Tannehill had just as many rushing touchdowns this season, and in their Week 11 meeting, Tannehill had 35 yards on the ground to 51 for Jackson. So while many might jump at Jackson's rushing total (o/u 74.5), Tannehill's (o/u 16.5) is a much better look.

Bears @ Saints (-9.5, 47.5), 4:40 p.m.

All eyes will be on the polarizing Mitch Trubisky, who faces a stiff test in a Saints defense that allowed the sixth-fewest completions this season and tied for the league lead in interceptions. Even in what is likely to be a negative game script with the Bears playing from behind, Trubisky is far from a sure thing to pile up stats. He's also just -150 to throw an interception, which certainly seems worth the juice.

David Montgomery has been heavily involved in the passing game for the Bears this season, especially coming on strong of late, but I tend to lean under his totals of 3.5 receptions and 27.5 yards against a Saints team allowing the fifth-fewest receptions and third-fewest yards to running backs this season, as well as the fewest receptions since Week 10.

Instead, it's Cole Kmet who I'd like to target. The Saints tied for the sixth-most touchdowns allowed to tight ends, and despite only scoring twice this season, Kmet is coming off a game in which he received a career-high eight targets against the Packers. He's +350 to score a touchdown in this game.

Tight ends could play a very prominent role here, in fact. The Bears allowed the sixth-fewest receptions to opposing wide receivers this season but are tied for the fifth-most receptions and seventh-most yards allowed to tight ends. Chicago also allowed 12 receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season, third-most in the league and one of just three teams to surrender more than 10. Receiving totals still aren't posted for the Saints as a result of Michael Thomas' uncertain status, but when they are, Jared Cook overs are in play.

Browns @ Steelers (-6, 47), 8:15 p.m.

Facing a tough Steelers defense, short an offensive lineman, and without play-caller Kevin Stefanski, expect the Browns to lean heavily on the run game. The Steelers allowed the fewest completions by opposing quarterbacks this season and recorded the most interceptions, while just three teams allowed fewer passing yards. It's going to be tough sledding for Baker Mayfield, whose totals are set at 239.5 passing yards, 19.5 completions, and 1.5 touchdowns.

When Mayfield does pass, it's likely going to be to his wide receivers. Pittsburgh allowed the second-fewest receptions and fewest yards to running backs this season, plus the third-lowest receptions and second-lowest yardage totals to tight ends. That should equate to more opportunity for Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins, and less for Kareem Hunt and Austin Hooper.

Meanwhile, look for the Steelers to take to the air. Pittsburgh's running game has struggled and Cleveland has been strong against the run, allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards to running backs. But the Browns have trouble against the pass, allowing the eighth-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, the fifth-most touchdowns to wide receivers, and the fifth-most receptions to tight ends. Amplifying the team's issues, Cleveland placed starting safety Ronnie Harrison on the COVID-19 list earlier this week.

There will be plenty of volume to go around for Steelers pass-catchers with Ben Roethlisberger (o/u 278.5 yards, o/u 41.5 attempts, o/u 26.5 completions) likely to throw early and often in what should be a closer affair than the Browns' regular-season visit to Pittsburgh.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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