Divisional round totals: Best over/under bets for all 4 games
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The divisional round features a slew of gunslingers ready to take the big stage. Are bettors in for a boatload of points this weekend, or will the defenses step up?
Let's dive into all four over/unders and dish out our best bets.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers, Jan. 16 at 4:35 p.m. ETTotal: 45.5
The Rams finally went over the total last weekend while beating the Seahawks 30-20, breaking a string of four consecutive unders from a team that's quietly struggling offensively.
Los Angeles hadn't posted over 334 total yards during its previous five games. That's especially concerning because the Rams played defenses that rank No. 26, 21, and 16 (twice) in the league in DVOA during that stretch. The Packers' unit ranks just 17th, but it's been lights out recently, allowing over 16 points just once during the club's last five outings.
This is a tough matchup for Rams quarterback Jared Goff, who's 0-2 against the spread with zero touchdowns and five interceptions during games played in freezing-cold temperatures. I wouldn't expect a run-filled contest in Lambeau.
Pick: Under
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (50) Jan. 16 at 8:15 p.m.Bills overs are running hot. After needing the hook to hit last week's over against the Colts, Buffalo has cashed three of its last four overs, and seven of the team's last 10. And if you strictly bet Bills team total overs, you'd be a winner in four of the club's previous five matchups.
Baltimore's Lamar Jackson and Buffalo's Josh Allen are two of the league's most electrifying players. The pair of third-year QBs can effortlessly orchestrate a track meet, and potential snow in Buffalo could help the offenses stay a step ahead.
However, with winds up to 17 mph forecasted and Baltimore netting four of its last five unders as a road 'dog, we'll lean on the defenses.
Pick: Under
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 57), Jan. 17 at 3:05 p.m. ETI'd like to offer my sincere condolences to the Browns' defense. It ranks No. 25 in DVOA pass defense despite playing the easiest slate of opposing offenses, and Cleveland now faces the Chiefs.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 21-10 against the spread with an extra week to prepare, and the league's second-ranked offense by DVOA is rested. The home side of the scoreboard will get lit up like a Christmas tree on Saturday.
The Browns probably won't be able to run the ball and take their sweet time as 10-point underdogs, but they'll experience success early. Running back Nick Chubb is at or near the top of most advanced metrics, and only the Patriots were worse against the rush than K.C. this season.
Don't overthink this one.
Pick: Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 52), Jan. 17 at 6:40 p.m.This is a patented Tom Brady game. His Buccaneers have been outscored 72-26 against the Saints in two regular-season matchups this campaign, but somehow Brady and his red-hot offense will produce a masterpiece here.
After all, this unit is trending way up.
Tampa Bay is currently No. 3 in DVOA offense, behind only the Chiefs and Packers. The Bucs have cashed four straight team total overs, averaging 38.3 points per game over that stretch. That number is likely to come down against New Orleans' third-ranked scoring defense, but this total could still be a tick too low.
Outside of a few questionable players, the Saints are finally healthy on offense. They benefitted from a nice tuneup against a formidable opponent last weekend in the Bears, who rank No. 8 in DVOA defense. New Orleans still put up nearly 400 yards of offense, and the team didn't need that much to earn a 21-9 victory.
Two legendary quarterbacks in a dome, and with plenty of offensive firepower to quickly turn this into an arcade game? Let's finish the weekend off with a doozy.
Pick: Over
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.
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