AFC championship player props: All-in on Josh Allen

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The regular-season meeting between the Bills and Chiefs was not a fun one for over bettors.

Kansas City slowed that Week 6 game to a crawl and successfully emphasized ball control. The result was a 26-17 Chiefs win - a far cry from what the market expected in terms of points (55). Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen both had relatively quiet nights on the stat sheet, but each has a chance to go berserk in Round 2 with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

We're sticking to just one of those superstar signal-callers for Sunday's prop card. Here's what stands out.

Josh Allen over 306.5 yards AND longest completion over 39.5 yards

We don't know if it'll be the first drive, the last drive, or somewhere in between. What we do know is Allen has to take some shots against this Chiefs secondary.

The Bills were limited to just 50 plays in the first meeting between these teams. Kansas City performed well overall, allowing just 4.1 yards per.

But, as we noted in our totals piece earlier this week, Buffalo caught the Chiefs' defense at its peak; the unit was red-hot through the first nine weeks of the season, ranking sixth in DVOA pass, according to Football Outsiders. Since then, Kansas City has dropped all the way to No. 29.

Allen could have his fingerprints all over this game if it plays out similarly to last weekend's win over the Ravens. Buffalo's offensive staff dialed up just nine designed runs to running backs, instead preferring to put the ball in the hands of the third-year franchise quarterback. Baltimore's cornerbacks put Allen in a bind, though, limiting him to just 206 yards, one touchdown, and a QBR of 86.1 - his lowest in his previous five games.

Should we give Allen a pass? After all, Baltimore (No. 10) was the third straight top-10 DVOA defense the Bills played after drawing the Colts (No. 8) and Dolphins (No. 6). Statistically, this weekend's tilt is the holy grail of matchups: The Chiefs rank No. 22 in DVOA defense, and Sunday will mark just the second time in seven outings that the Bills have faced a secondary ranked in the lower half of pass DVOA.

Allen was highly volatile in his first two NFL seasons, but he's since rounded into form. The 24-year-old is sixth in the league in both attempts and deep pass attempts per game this season. With the addition of Stefon Diggs at wide receiver, Allen's supporting cast efficiency has improved from No. 33 last season to No. 10 this year.

To top it off, Allen is No. 3 in the league in air yards, No. 4 in both completed air yards and money throws, and No. 5 in adjusted air yards.

Mahomes is drawing all of the focus ahead of Sunday's game, but Allen should have the bigger day. Go over the total on both his passing yards and his longest completion.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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