Why you should bet on a goal-line TD in Super Bowl LV
The end of the first quarter was ticking away, and the Chiefs needed an answer. They'd fallen behind early to the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, but then Kansas City advanced to the goal line on the 14th play of a drive. Patrick Mahomes made his move on the 15th play, faking a pitch outside before plunging into the end zone for a 1-yard touchdown.
It was the first of three goal-line scores in the game - highlighting what's slowly become one of the more profitable props on Super Bowl Sunday.
Last year's contest marked the fourth time over the last five years that the shortest touchdown in the Super Bowl has been under 1.5 yards. The only outlier was in 2019, when the Patriots and Rams combined for just one touchdown. The distance of that score? Two yards.
Short touchdowns have become vogue in the Super Bowl, and the market hasn't caught up. A year ago, the odds for the shortest touchdown being under 1.5 yards hovered around -160. Ahead of Super Bowl LV between the Chiefs (-3.5) and Buccaneers, the under can be found as cheap as -155, which suggests a hit rate of roughly 60%.
That pales in comparison to what you'd expect based on recent data. Check out this list of the shortest touchdown in every Super Bowl since 1990:
| SUPER BOWL (YEAR) | TD LENGTH | PLAYER | PLAY TYPE |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIV (2020) | 1 | Multiple (x3) | Both |
| LIII (2019) | 2 | Sony Michel | Rushing |
| LII (2018) | 1 | Nick Foles | Receiving |
| LI (2017) | 1 | James White | Rushing |
| 50 (2016) | 1 | Jonathan Stewart | Rushing |
| XLIX (2015) | 3 | Multiple (x3) | Both |
| XLVIII (2014) | 1 | Marshawn Lynch | Rushing |
| XLVII (2013) | 1 | Dennis Pitta | Receiving |
| XLVI (2012) | 2 | Victor Cruz | Receiving |
| XLV (2011) | 8 | Multiple (x3) | Both |
| XLIV (2010) | 2 | Jeremy Shockey | Receiving |
| XLIII (2009) | 1 | Multiple (x3) | Both |
| XLII (2008) | 1 | Laurence Maroney | Rushing |
| XLI (2007) | 1 | Dominic Rhodes | Rushing |
| XL (2006) | 1 | Ben Roethlisberger | Rushing |
| XXXIX (2005) | 2 | Multiple (x2) | Both |
| XXXVIII (2004) | 1 | Mike Vrabel | Receiving |
| XXXVII (2003) | 2 | Mike Alstott | Rushing |
| XXXVI (2002) | 2 | Kurt Warner | Rushing |
| XXXV (2001) | 3 | Jamal Lewis | Rushing |
| XXXIV (2000) | 1 | Eddie George | Rushing |
| XXXIII (1999) | 1 | Howard Griffith (x2) | Rushing |
| XXXII (1998) | 1 | Multiple (x4) | Rushing |
| XXXI (1997) | 1 | Keith Byars | Receiving |
| XXX (1996) | 1 | Multiple (x2) | Rushing |
| XXIX (1995) | 1 | Natrone Means | Rushing |
| XXVIII (1994) | 1 | Emmitt Smith | Rushing |
| XXVII (1993) | 2 | Multiple (x2) | Both |
| XXVI (1992) | 1 | Multiple (x2) | Rushing |
| XXV (1991) | 1 | Multiple (x2) | Rushing |
| XXIV (1990) | 1 | Multiple (x2) | Rushing |
See all the ones littering the chart? The shortest touchdown has been under 1.5 yards in 21 of the 31 Super Bowls listed above, including 10 of the previous 15 and four of the last five. Those marks suggest a line closer to -200 or -210, leaving plenty of value for under bettors.
It's not just a case of recency bias, either. The shortest touchdown has been under 1.5 yards in 33 of 54 Super Bowls (61.1%), with a total of 50 such touchdowns over that span and 34 in the last 31 years. We saw three in last year's contest alone, with two coming from a pass-happy Chiefs team.
That reflects a common misconception with this prop, as a stout rushing attack often isn't needed to make under bettors successful. Of the last 11 Super Bowl goal-line touchdowns, five have come through the air, and quarterbacks have run in their fair share, too.
This season, the Chiefs and Buccaneers have combined for 18 touchdowns of less than 1.5 yards, and the two clubs have recorded or allowed at least one such score in nine of 14 combined games since facing off in Week 12. Kansas City has notched five over its last five games, while Tampa Bay is particularly dangerous near the goal line - especially with the threat of Brady scoring on the ground, just as Mahomes did a year ago. The 43-year-old recorded just 6 regular-season rushing yards, but he still scored three times.
So consider the length of the shortest touchdown when filling out your prop bets this week. If recent trends hold true, less could be more on Sunday.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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