Super Bowl LV betting trends: Andy Reid rarely loses after a bye week
Ahead of this week's Super Bowl LV matchup between the Chiefs (-3.5) and Buccaneers, seemingly every trend favors Tom Brady in this spot - from fading defending champions to betting on wild-card teams and clubs seeking revenge to Brady's own success as an underdog.
If there's anything scarier than betting against Brady, though, it might be fading Andy Reid off a bye week.
Since he became a head coach in 1999, Reid is a phenomenal 27-5 straight up and 21-11 against the spread when he has an extra week to prepare for an opponent, per Sports Database. He's 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in those spots in the playoffs, including 2-0 ATS in his two Super Bowl appearances.
Here's a look at how Reid's teams have performed in those nine postseason games after a week off:
| SEASON | MATCHUP | RESULT | SU | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Chiefs (-8) vs. Browns | 22-17 | W | L |
| 2019 | Chiefs (-10) vs. Texans | 51-31 | W | W |
| 2019 | Chiefs (-1.5) vs. 49ers | 31-20 | W | W |
| 2018 | Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Colts | 31-13 | W | W |
| 2016 | Chiefs (-2) vs. Steelers | 16-18 | L | L |
| 2004 | Eagles (+7) vs. Patriots | 21-24 | L | W |
| 2004 | Eagles (-9.5) vs. Vikings | 27-14 | W | W |
| 2003 | Eagles (-4.5) vs. Packers | 20-17 | W | L |
| 2002 | Eagles (-7.5) vs. Falcons | 20-6 | W | W |
In three years with Patrick Mahomes as his starting quarterback, Reid is a perfect 7-0 SU with four ATS wins off a bye week, outscoring opponents by nearly 14 points per game. That includes last year's Super Bowl when the Chiefs erased a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to beat the 49ers by 11 points.
While Reid is hailed as an offensive visionary, his success when given extra prep time has been fueled by defense. In those 34 games off a bye, Reid's teams have held opponents to 16.1 points per contest - a full 4.4 points lower than in all other games. That's helped spur a 24-7-1 record to the under in those spots, including 8-1 in the postseason and 2-0 in the Super Bowl.
Perhaps the most incredible feat is how his teams perform in this spot when favored by at least three points, posting an absurd 19-1 record with a 12-8 ATS mark. That should be of particular interest to moneyline bettors - when Reid gets extra time for a game his team should win, he almost never loses.
Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians is 6-2 SU coming off a bye week but just 3-4-1 ATS in that spot, including 0-1 ATS in his lone playoff appearance off rest. He'll have his work cut out for him against Reid, whom bettors can trust to take advantage of the Super Bowl bye week.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
Copyright (C) 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.