2021 NFL MVP opening odds: Mahomes, Rodgers favored atop crowded field
Two days after the worst game of his professional career, Patrick Mahomes has opened as the favorite to win the 2021 NFL MVP.
The Chiefs quarterback is the +500 front-runner to win the award, which would be the second of his career after he set the league ablaze in his first full season as a starter in 2018. He finished third in MVP voting this year and was briefly the favorite before giving way to Aaron Rodgers (+800), who's priced just behind Mahomes after winning his third MVP trophy late last week.
Is either worth the short price? Mahomes is scheduled to undergo surgery Wednesday to repair a torn plantar plate in his foot, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. His lack of mobility clearly hindered Mahomes late in the year, though the Chiefs' offensive line is an even bigger concern heading into 2021.
As for Rodgers, the future Hall of Fame quarterback could be headed for an acrimonious split with the Packers, either this offseason or the next. He turned that fuel into fire in 2020, but expecting a similar showing in 2021 might be too much to ask from the 37-year-old.
Here are the odds to win the 2021 NFL MVP (shorter than 100-1) with a few of our favorite early values:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +800 |
| Josh Allen | +1300 |
| Russell Wilson | +1300 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1500 |
| Tom Brady | +1600 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1600 |
| Dak Prescott | +1700 |
| Deshaun Watson | +1700 |
| Justin Herbert | +1800 |
| Kyler Murray | +1800 |
| Ryan Tannehill | +2500 |
| Derrick Henry | +3300 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +3300 |
| Baker Mayfield | +4000 |
| Carson Wentz | +4000 |
| Jameis Winston | +4000 |
| Joe Burrow | +5000 |
| Kirk Cousins | +5000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +5000 |
| Dalvin Cook | +6600 |
| Cam Newton | +6600 |
| Derek Carr | +8000 |
| Sam Darnold | +8000 |
| Alvin Kamara | +8000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +8000 |
| Drew Lock | +8000 |
As I wrote in my early Super Bowl odds piece Monday, I can already tell that I'm going to be a Rams truther this year. That starts with Stafford, who's posted elite numbers with elite traits for years but has been trapped in the vortex that is Detroit Lions football.
What happens when you pair a premier arm with a brilliant mind like Sean McVay? We've seen it result in MVP campaigns with Matt Ryan and Kyle Shanahan, Rodgers and Matt LaFleur, as well as Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels. Even McVay had Jared Goff drawing MVP attention in 2018 before the quarterback regressed to his true self in recent years.
Goff has been in the top 10 in attempts during each of the past three years, including when he led the league (626) in 2019, so the volume will be there for Stafford to produce an MVP campaign. Maybe the experiment blows up in Los Angeles. But at 15-1 odds, I like my chances on Stafford posting the Hall of Fame-caliber season we've been waiting on for his entire career.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans (+1700)The value of this ticket could skyrocket depending on where Watson lands. If he's shipped to the 49ers and gets to play in Kyle Shanahan's offense? Watch out. What if the Panthers make a play, and Watson sets records in Joe Brady's high-volume attack?
Yes, this price could lengthen if he goes to, say, the Jets. But that's a risk I'm willing to take with oddsmakers pricing Watson like a fringe top-10 option. Even on a Texans roster devoid of playmakers, Watson led the league in passing yards (4,823) despite ranking 10th in attempts (544), and he posted an admirable 33-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Watson will put up numbers wherever he plays - assuming he plays at all. Again, there's risk abound, but betting on MVP is about upside swings in a winner-take-all market. I'll happily ride Watson at this price, warts and all.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans (+2500)Tannehill is finally getting some love in the MVP market after opening at 100-1 a year ago, only to see his price tighten to around this range late in the season.
He finished tied for sixth among quarterbacks in PFF's offensive grades in 2020 after claiming the top spot in 2019. PFF's top-graded quarterback has won MVP in four of the last eight years, and every MVP since 2013 has finished ranked within the top five.
Tannehill deserves it - he has one of the NFL's elite arms and he's flanked by two of the league's best players in A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry. If the Titans can produce a Bills-like run during the regular season, Tannehill will get his due credit.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.
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