Stanley Cup odds update: Habs soaring as Canucks free fall
It may feel like we're still in the infant stages of the 2021 NHL season, but most teams - those that haven't battled COVID-19 issues - are through at least 20% of the schedule.
That's more than enough of a sample size to begin separating the pretenders and contenders, with teams like the Canadiens and Canucks revealing their true worth to bettors through the opening month.
Here's a look at the current Stanley Cup oddsboard compared to what it looked like before the season:
| TEAM | ODDS (2/9) | ODDS (1/12) |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | +450 | +450 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +600 | +800 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +700 | +900 |
| Boston Bruins | +1000 | +1200 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +1200 | +1600 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +1200 | +1200 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +1500 | +2000 |
| Dallas Stars | +1800 | +1800 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +1800 | +3500 |
| St. Louis Blues | +1800 | +1800 |
| Washington Capitals | +1800 | +2000 |
| New York Islanders | +2200 | +2200 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +2200 | +2200 |
| Edmonton Oilers | +2500 | +2500 |
| Calgary Flames | +2800 | +3500 |
| New York Rangers | +3200 | +2800 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +3800 | +3800 |
| Nashville Predators | +4000 | +3000 |
| Florida Panthers | +4500 | +4500 |
| Winnipeg Jets | +4500 | +4500 |
| Minnesota Wild | +4800 | +6000 |
| Vancouver Canucks | +5000 | +2500 |
| Arizona Coyotes | +6000 | +8000 |
| New Jersey Devils | +6000 | +8500 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +6500 | +5000 |
| Los Angeles Kings | +8000 | +7000 |
| Anaheim Ducks | +8500 | +7500 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +12500 | +8500 |
| San Jose Sharks | +12500 | +7000 |
| Detroit Red Wings | +25000 | +25000 |
| Ottawa Senators | +35000 | +20000 |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Trending upMontreal Canadiens (+3500 to +1800)
It's hard to find any faults in the Canadiens' game right now. Despite sitting just below the Leafs in the standings, the underlying numbers - including the league's joint-best goal differential and leading the NHL in expected goals percentage at five-on-five (Evolving-Hockey) - all support the Habs as the team to beat in the North Division. There's not a weak spot on this roster, and even with their odds being slashed in half, there's still some value here.
Minnesota Wild (+6000 to +4800)
The Kirill Kaprizov era is officially underway, but I'm not ready to buy in on the Wild yet. The underlying metrics support their strong start, but eight of their 11 games have come against the Ducks, Kings, and Sharks. They were certainly competitive against the Avalanche despite losing two of three, but I need a much bigger sample size against the West Division's true contenders before I'm ready to say the Wild have arrived - and I say that as someone who was on their bandwagon coming into the season.
Arizona Coyotes (+8000 to +6000)
Perhaps the team we really should be looking out for in the West is Arizona. The Coyotes (6-5-1) own virtually an identical record to the Wild (6-5), but have faced a much tougher schedule to date with eight games against the Blues and Knights. They've also yet to face the basement-dwelling Kings, a team the Wild have faced four times. Despite the tough schedule, Arizona ranks second in expected goals for per game and 10th in expected goal share at five-on-five. Its young forwards have all taken a step forward, and the ceiling is high with Darcy Kuemper in goal. At 60-1, there's still value on the Coyotes.
Trending downNashville Predators (+3000 to +4000)
It's been tough sledding for the Predators, who are 3-8 since starting 2-0. I dug to try and uncover reasons for optimism in Nashville, but it wasn't pretty. They're average at best at five-on-five, and an unrivaled disaster on special teams with the league's worst penalty kill joined by an equally feeble power play. And to top it off, both goaltenders are struggling. With a rapidly ageing core, all signs point to this being the start of a steady decline.
Vancouver Canucks (+2500 to +5000)
It's looking like a lost season for the Canucks, who appear to be much closer to Ottawa's tier in the North Division. A 6-10 record has left them in a massive hole at the quarter mark of the season, and the underlying numbers show just how miserable the team has been, sitting 28th in expected goal share and Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. That's largely down to how bad they've been defensively, ranking dead last on a per game basis in shots allowed, goals against, expected goals against, and scoring chances against at five-on-five. They've allowed at least five goals in nine of their 13 non-Ottawa games this season. Yikes.
Chicago Blackhawks (+8500 to +12500)
It's hard to make any sense of the Chicago's slide down the oddsboard which, if nothing else, presents a great buying opportunity. The Blackhawks have found something in rookie goalie Kevin Lankinen. He sits third in the NHL with a 5.30 GSAA, and they've taken points from eight of his nine starts (5-1-3). The team in front of him is also playing well after a slow start, generating offense at an above-average rate. They're proving to be undervalued, winning three in a row against the Hurricanes and Stars, while losing just once in regulation in the last 11 games. It's a wide-open race for fourth place in the Central Division, and they're forcing themselves into the conversation.
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, strongly believes in the power of the jinx, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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