UK suffers record 9.9% slump; KPMG UK chair quits after 'stop moaning' comments – business live

UK GDP shrank by 9.9% last year amid Covid-19 lockdowns, the worst since modern records began, and only beaten by the Great Frost of 1709

• Latest: KPMG chair quits after telling staff to stop moaning'
• Full story: Bill Michael: I'm truly sorry"

Earlier:

• UK shrank 9.9% last year - worst on record"
• But economy avoids double-dip recession with 1% growth in Q4
• UK grew 1.2% in December.... but probably shrinking again now
• BoE chief economist: economy is a coiled spring

11.09am GMT

On paper, the UK economy suffered a worse slump than other advanced economies last year -- although it's been a bitterly tough year all round.

For example, according to official data, in 2020....

When the UK statistics agency says UK GDP isn't easy to compare internationally, here's a big reason why: it assumed the UK had *gigantic* inflation, because it adjusts for (mainly) hospital productivity, and other countries don't. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/M7XzzB0Rt3

Ignore that adjustment by looking at nominal GDP, and the UK is a bit worse due to all the bad things people keep burbling on about - more lockdowns, more deaths, a haircut-based economy - but nothing like so bad. (Note: Up to Q3 for Japan and eurozone, but you see the pattern) pic.twitter.com/FEQ3A4ckrh

10.31am GMT

Kit Juckes, foreign exchange expert at French bank Societe Generale, has delved into the history books too:

Even George Washington, born on February 22, 1732 wasn't around the last time Great Britain, as it was then, saw a bigger GDP decline than 2020's 9.9%.

This time it's a pandemic to blame whereas back then, it was a Great Frost, which saw ice in the North Sea, and the War of Spanish Succession (1701-1714) which was doing the damage. There 13.4% fall in British GDP in 1709 was followed by a 9.1% fall in 1710 and overall, GDP was smaller in 1715 than it was before the start of the war. Fighting with continental neighbours is never good for the economy....

Last year was extraordinary but despite concerns about new variants of the virus and continued economic restrictions, consensus looks for a 4.6% rebound in 2021.