NHL betting preview: Best bets for Monday and Tuesday
We enjoyed a tasty sweep this weekend with the Oilers and Red Wings both cashing for us as 'dogs, moving us to 14-4 on this current heater.
Here's how I'm betting these next two nights.
Stars (+100) @ Panthers (-120)Feb. 22, 7 p.m. ET
Few teams have enjoyed a hotter start to the campaign than the Panthers, who sit third in the NHL in points percentage ahead of Monday's date with the Stars. This is hardly a line you'd have expected coming into the season, but bettors are having to pay up for Florida right now given its impressive start.
In combing through the numbers, though, there appears to be good value on a Stars team that's been idle for over a week due to inclement weather in Dallas. The Panthers have started to stumble a bit at five-on-five, owning a smaller portion of the expected goal share in four of their last seven games - four of which came against the lowly Red Wings. They sit an impressive eighth in the NHL overall in this regard, but that's still three spots lower than the Stars, who have owned a 49.34% share or better in each of their last seven contests, including 54% or better in five of them.
Dallas is playing terrific five-on-five hockey and also owns the league's second-best power play. Add in the fact that Florida netminder Chris Driedger has begun to cool off, allowing at least three goals in three of his last four starts after conceding two or fewer in each of his first four, and there's great value on the Stars tonight with the city of Dallas rallying behind them.
Pick: Stars (+100)
Flames (+150) @ Leafs (-170)Feb. 22, 7 p.m.
Everything we've seen over the last few weeks shouts Maple Leafs blowout on Monday night, but recent performances have also resulted in some unexpected value on the visitors. Toronto remains the class of the North but continues to be average at five-on-five while relying on a scorching hot power play. That's not a sustainable approach, so regression looms if the Leafs can't up their level of play at even strength.
The Flames have dropped three straight and haven't won in regulation since Feb. 11, but this team is a lot better than its recent results suggest. A trip to Toronto doesn't look like an ideal spot to stop the bleeding, but Calgary is catching the Maple Leafs at the right time with Zach Hyman, Jake Muzzin, and Joe Thornton all out Monday.
The previous two meetings between these teams resulted in one-goal wins for the Leafs despite the Flames outplaying them at five-on-five. I don't love making this bet given the current state of both teams, but there's just too much value to pass up with Calgary in a good buy-low spot.
Pick: Flames (+150)
Sabres (+100) @ Devils (-120)Feb. 23, 7 p.m.
The Devils remain one of my favorite teams to bet on, as they're continuously undervalued by oddsmakers. They're finally healthy with new captain Nico Hischier returning over the weekend, while Ryan Murray, Dmitry Kulikov, and Sami Vatanen have all been restored on the back end. Despite all the adversity, including MacKenzie Blackwood missing more than half of their games, the Devils have begun the year with an impressive 6-5-2 record.
Their expected goal share at five-on-five is virtually identical to the Sabres', but they hold a significant edge in Corsi For percentage, shots percentage, and goals percentage. Buffalo's numbers are quite inflated thanks to a very impressive start to the season, but the team has come crashing down to earth over its last seven games.
The Sabres got the better of this meeting Saturday, but the Devils dominated the expected goal share in the previous two games between these teams. That will be the case again Tuesday as Buffalo finds itself in a tough spot - Tuesday's contest is the second leg of a back-to-back for a team in turmoil, as it first visits the Islanders on Monday night.
That likely means a Carter Hutton start for the Sabres in New Jersey, leading to an even bigger goaltending edge for the Devils with Blackwood returning to the crease. All in all, the hosts are an absolute steal at anything short of -130.
Pick: Devils (-120)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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