Hamilton will be in COVID red zone for weeks, says city’s medical officer of health
It will likely be weeks before Hamilton moves out of the red zone and COVID restrictions are loosened, says the city's medical officer of health.
Some may say, When should we be moving to orange?'" Dr. Elizabeth Richardson said at a board of health meeting on Friday. Definitely monitoring this for several weeks to come before I would expect to see any change in terms of a downward movement for Hamilton."
Her caution comes as the city reports 55 new cases of COVID on Monday.
In addition, infections are soaring at the Barton Street jail to 27 cases from 10 on Sunday. A total of 19 inmates and eight staff have tested positive at the Hamilton-Wentworth Detention Centre since the outbreak was declared Feb. 15.
The virus is also spreading in the city's shelters with 26 cases at the Salvation Army Booth Centre alone. In total, 24 residents and two staff have been infected at the shelter at 94 York Blvd. since Feb. 10.
It comes as questions are being raised about why shelters have been left out of the vaccine rollout when cases are climbing among the vulnerable population.
I recognize there are a lot of competing priorities," said Dr. Tim O'Shea, medical director of the Hamilton Social Medicine Response Team. But to me there is compelling reasons to prioritize this group."
None of Hamilton's homeless population had been vaccinated as of last week. Neither had staff at isolation centres for homeless COVID-19 patients, nor those doing testing in shelters. None are among those next in line.
If we start to see shelter staff getting sick, the potential for the system to collapse is very high," said O'Shea. We know homeless people are more likely to die than the general population, so there is a mortality risk there as well."
A number of shelters have outbreaks, including Mission Services Men's Centre on James Street North, Mission Services Inasmuch House, the Good Shepherd Men's Centre on Mary Street and the overflow space run by Good Shepherd at the old Cathedral Boys' school on Main Street East.
COVID has halted admissions in some shelters over the last week, causing concern about accommodation.
Other sites supporting vulnerable Hamiltonians that are in outbreak include Hamilton Downtown Family YMCA, Carole Anne's Place at the YWCA and Wesley Urban Ministries Day Centre.
The eight community sites and the jail are among a total of 21 ongoing outbreaks in Hamilton. Four are at seniors' homes, two in hospital units, two in workplaces, and four in schools and child-care centres.
The fast-spreading variants are one of the main reasons Richardson has expressed concern about loosening restrictions in Hamilton.
One case of B.1.1.7 was detected in the city Feb. 17. Public health hasn't said if it's linked to travel or whether there is evidence of community spread of the variant that originated in the U.K.
The numbers are going down but we do remain very concerned because of the emergence of the variants," said Richardson.
Hamilton's numbers have been hovering on the cusp between red and the less restrictive orange zone of the province's COVID-19 framework, although the weekly rate of new cases per 100,000 population jumped back up to 52 on Monday from 32 on Feb. 14. The threshold for the red zone is 40.
The number of COVID tests coming back positive in Hamilton is 1.9 per cent, which is in the orange zone.
The reproduction number is in the green zone, but has climbed to 0.95 on Feb. 18 from 0.78 on Feb. 4. The metric is still based on exponential growth taking place at above 1.0. Provincial projections estimate the number now needs to be below 0.7 in the presence of the three variants.
Public health's capacity has improved to the point that it can follow up with 92 per cent of COVID cases within one day.
But Hamilton hospitals remain stretched, with 52 COVID patients and increased occupancy related to their usual work.
When asked at the board meeting if she was looking to have Hamilton moved to a less restrictive zone, Richardson responded: Absolutely not."
Not at all looking to go into orange at this point and really just to stay the course," she said.
Ontario's chief medical officer of health agreed Monday that it's unlikely regions will see loosening restrictions, calling it a precarious time."
We will be fairly quick at moving things up if things start to happen in the wrong direction," said Dr. David Williams. We're going to be very cautious about opening and need to have a period - a trend - of improvement before we go down to a lower level."
He stressed lifting the stay-at-home order in most of Ontario was not an opening up."
(Stay) at home unless you really need to go out," said Williams. With our variants of concern, their ease of transmissibility from person to person, you're going to have to be more vigilant personally than maybe you have been up to now."
Joanna Frketich is a Hamilton-based reporter covering health for The Spectator. Reach her via email: jfrketich@thespec.com