Fantasy: Analysis and projections from 1st wave of free agency
With legal tampering underway, several players have already made their intentions known by agreeing to deals with new teams.
Let's take a look at all the notable skill-position signings so far - and what they'll mean for fantasy owners.
Washington signs QB Ryan FitzpatrickContract: 1 year, $10 million
Football is more fun when 38-year-old journeyman Fitzpatrick is on the field, and by all accounts, that should be the case come Week 1 since he's signed a deal with a Washington franchise in desperate need of a starting quarterback.
Ron Rivera has guided a culture change in Washington, turning the Football Team into a real playoff contender in one season. Young stars like Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson are the path to a potentially explosive attack that was only lacking a passer who could unlock its upside in 2020. Despite his flaws, Fitzpatrick will not be shy about feeding the ball to his playmakers and pushing the ball downfield when the opportunity arises.
It's important to remember that turnover-prone losses counterbalance the highlight-reel plays and come-from-behind victories he orchestrates. So fantasy-wise, you're in for a wild ride if you're planning on using Fitzpatrick in a 2QB/Superflex format or as a bye-week replacement.
However, this is still an excellent signing for Washington, and let's face it - at some point this season, we're all going to be excited about watching the beard work his magic.
Fitzpatrick's 2021 projection (16 starts): 3,924 passing yards, 20 TDs, 15 INTs
41 carries, 173 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 2 FUMs
Contract: 1 year, $12 million
New Orleans welcomed back Winston with open arms after Drew Brees officially announced his retirement. The move now sets up a training camp competition between Winston and Taysom Hill, who took over as the starter when Brees was hurt in 2020.
Hill performed well from a fantasy perspective thanks to his rushing ability, but he's a limited passer - and at 30 years old, there might not be much hope for improvement in that area.
Meanwhile, Winston can make any throw on the field. The only thing remaining is to see whether Sean Payton and the Saints' coaching staff can reign in the former first-overall pick's erratic decision-making.
Long-term, Winston offers more upside and the possibility of developing into a true franchise quarterback. Many writers, including NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, have stated their belief that the 27-year-old will be the starter in 2021.
However, there's a concern that we'll see the sort of split where Winston gets the majority of snaps, but Hill steals valuable red-zone work - something we've already witnessed at times when Brees was at the helm.
Another issue is New Orleans' tendency to lean on its rushing attack and defense to win games. The days of Brees' putting the team on his shoulder disappeared a few years back in favor of a more balanced gameplan. Would Winston be as valuable in that environment as he was when he played YOLO ball in Tampa?
The upside is alluring, which makes both Winston and Hill interesting late-round targets. Just understand that regardless of who wins the job, there might not be fantasy gold at the end of this rainbow.
Winston's 2021 projection (14 starts): 3,451 passing yards, 21 TDs, 15 INTs
31 carries, 126 rushing yards, 1 TD, 4 FUMs
Contract: 3 years, $37.5 million
Impatient Jets fans had to wait until Monday night before their team opened up the checkbook and signed a major addition to their offense.
Davis might not be the most tantalizing free agent on the market, but he's coming off career-highs in catches (65), yards (984), touchdowns (5), 100-yard games (5), and yards per catch (15.1) in a season that helped him sidestep the dreaded bust label.
As a former top-five selection in the 2017 NFL Draft, Davis still has work to do to escape that shadow completely, and the Jets will be motivated to help him reach his ceiling. The 26-year-old will join forces with last year's second-rounder Denzel Mims and veteran Jamison Crowder in the starting lineup. Mims battled injuries during his rookie season but looked like he belonged when he was on the field. Crowder is an underrated yet volume-dependent slot man.
With Davis in the mix, it's a bit of a guessing game to see who'll emerge from the pack due to the quarterback uncertainty. In fact, you could now make an argument that anyone from this newly-formed trio has a shot at returning WR3 fantasy value. A lot will come down to who gets the nod under center - whether it's a rookie taken with the second-overall pick, a blockbuster trade for Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson, or another chance given to Sam Darnold.
Without knowing that, we're working with incomplete information on this projection. Thankfully, the lack of clarity should keep the team's draft costs low for the time being.
Right now, I'd approach them Davis-Mims-Crowder in redraft leagues and Mims-Davis-Crowder in dynasty.
Davis' 2021 projection (16 starts): 61 receptions, 867 receiving yards, 4 TDs
Jaguars sign RB Carlos HydeContract: 2 years, $6 million
Hyde became the first running back to find a home in this year's free agency period, which is worth noting since many veteran ball carriers tend to stay on the market for a while before inking a new deal.
Perhaps Hyde's connection with Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer, dating back to their time together at Ohio State, helped get this one completed in such a speedy fashion.
Despite their history, no one is expecting Hyde - who turns 31 in September - to take over the starting job. But his arrival in Jacksonville will have an impact on last year's undrafted breakout star James Robinson.
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke pointed out, Robinson only ceded 0.8 carries per game to his backups in 2020. Meanwhile, Hyde averaged 7.1 rushes per contest in the weeks where both he and Chris Carson were healthy for the Seahawks last season. It's not a perfect comparison, but it does lead you to believe that Hyde will siphon off more touches than the Jags' backup runners did during Robinson's outstanding rookie campaign.
Even so, this could be a positive development for Robinson if the Jaguars are content with this duo in the backfield and pass on selecting a high-end running back prospect in April's draft.
At the moment, it seems as though Robinson's starting role is safe, and playing in a promising offense that'll soon be led by first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence keeps him in the RB2 conversation. As for Hyde, he's a worthy late-round RB to target in fantasy drafts after he proved he can still be a strong spot starter when called upon.
Hyde's 2021 projection (16 starts): 79 carries, 308 rushing yards, 2 TDs
13 receptions, 65 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Contract: 1 year, $10 million
Players using their title-run success to attract big-money deals in free agency usually forces most Super Bowl teams to shed talent. So give the Buccaneers credit for being able to keep their stars around - like Chris Godwin, Lavonte David, Shaq Barrett, and now Gronkowski - to chase another Lombardi Trophy.
While some reports on Monday suggested Gronk might explore his options around the league, it was clear that the veteran tight end's fate was tied to Tom Brady. All roads led to Tampa Bay, where he'll once again be a touchdown-dependent fantasy option.
The 31-year-old finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end in his first year with the Bucs, but he did so thanks to seven scores and a season-ending injury to teammate O.J. Howard after Week 4. Although it's a small sample size, Howard (11-146-2) actually outproduced a rusty Gronk (9-88-0) over the opening month before getting hurt.
Howard's return caps Gronk's upside in the fringe TE1/TE2 range, which means you should be aiming higher when drafting your starter for 2021.
Gronk's 2021 projection (16 starts): 41 receptions, 561 receiving yards, 7 TDs
Patriots sign WRs Nelson Agholor, Kendrick BourneAgholor's Contract: 2 years, $26 million
Bourne's Contract: 3 years, $22.5 million
Bill Belichick and the Patriots' front office were busy in the early portion of free agency, signing several players on both sides of the ball. Investing in adding talent to the club's pass-catching corps was high on New England's list of priorities, and the organization managed to find a couple of modestly priced wideouts to help boost the level of competition in the receiver room.
Agholor is the more exciting of the two, thanks to his career-year with the Raiders in 2020. The 27-year-old hauled in 48 passes for 896 yards and eight touchdowns as he rose to the top of Las Vegas' depth chart.
Bourne hasn't made that kind of mark on the stat sheet, but he flashed in limited duty with the 49ers - especially around the end zone where he's come away with 11 touchdowns over the last three seasons.
With 34-year-old Julian Edelman's future with the club uncertain and former first-rounder N'Keal Harry looking like a bust, Agholor and Bourne will likely join Jakobi Meyers in the starting lineup sooner rather than later.
As usual with the Pats, these are smart signings that will likely have a bigger impact in real life than in fantasy. All of these players are just late-round dart throws in your upcoming drafts.
Agholor's 2021 projection (16 starts): 43 receptions, 661 receiving yards, 3 TDs
Bourne's 2021 projection (16 starts): 34 receptions, 398 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Contract: 4 years, $50 million
After two years of almost non-existent tight end production, the Patriots have finally found a replacement for Rob Gronkowski.
Smith isn't a future Hall of Famer like Gronk - few are - but the 25-year-old is a well-rounded pass-catcher and blocker who has shown signs of stardom while competing for targets with A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and others in a low-volume Titans' passing attack.
Tennessee ranked 30th in pass attempts in 2020, so Smith's 15% target share resulted in just 65 balls thrown his way - which was a career-high. The bad news is that New England is one of the two teams that finished below the Titans in that category, meaning Smith will likely need to flirt with a 20% target share to see a significant boost in volume. Only five tight ends accomplished that feat last season, and it's the names you'd expect - Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Evan Engram.
Even though the Pats have also signed Agholor and Bourne, we should still see Smith heavily involved in the offense. Coordinator Josh McDaniels can take advantage of his outstanding run-after-catch ability and may even get him some carries - a tactic the team has employed with past tight ends.
It's enough to consider Smith a low-end TE1 heading into the 2021 campaign, but it's unlikely we see him challenge for a spot in the top-five.
Smith's 2021 projection (16 starts): 49 receptions, 534 receiving yards, 4 TDs
6 carries, 46 rushing yards, 1 TD
Contract: 4 years, $48 million
In a stunning move - given this year's declining salary cap and the general value of running backs around the league - the Packers elected to sign Jones to a long-term deal. The contract will keep him in Green Bay until his age-30 season and puts a definite damper on second-round sophomore A.J. Dillon's fantasy outlook.
Jones will return to his role as the team's lead back and one of the best playmakers in the NFL, while Dillon's role will still increase as he moves into the No. 2 spot vacated by free-agent Jamaal Williams. Although Dillon's fans might be disappointed, this move could present an intriguing buy-low window. Not only will Dillon be one of the top backup RBs out there, but his chance to start could still come either through injury or in the next few seasons as Jones advances into his late 20s.
For now, Jones remains a locked-in RB1 in fantasy, just as he's been in each of the last two seasons while compiling over 3,000 yards from scrimmage and 30 touchdowns. Whether he can finish among the top-five for a third straight campaign will depend on how involved Dillon gets, especially around the goal line where the club could put the youngster's 6-foot, 247-pound frame to good use.
With Aaron Rodgers coming off a bounce-back year and plenty of scoring opportunities to go around, you can treat Jones as a safe pick in the mid-to-late first round of your draft. But keep Dillon near the top of your list of potential league-winning bench players.
Jones' 2021 projection (15 starts): 209 carries, 1,087 rushing yards, 7 TDs
46 receptions, 381 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Contract: 1 year, $14 million
After a largely forgettable first season with the Patriots, the franchise has once again chosen Newton to be under center in their offense. It's possible the team could add competition in the form of another veteran or a rookie in the draft, but at the moment, this is Cam's job to lose.
Newton remains one of the most productive runners at his position, but he averaged a career-low 177 passing yards per game last season and was held to under 200 yards 10 times. The 31-year-old managed only eight passing touchdowns in 15 outings - a number propped up by a three-score game in a meaningless Week 17 contest against the Jets.
There are plenty of reasons for his performance, like transitioning to a new team, a lack of weapons in the receiving corps, and a positive COVID-19 diagnosis in the opening month. However, we also need to acknowledge that Newton isn't the same dominant force he was before shoulder injuries derailed his effectiveness with the Panthers.
At several points in the second half of the 2020 season, Newton missed throws in a way that made you question whether his arm is capable of holding up over the course of a 16-game schedule.
Newton's stats on the ground are enticing - including 12 rushing scores - but he would need to be placed in a perfect scenario before we could even consider him as a fantasy option.
Even with new additions in Smith, Agholor, and Bourne, only approach Newton as a potential starter in 2QB or Superflex formats. The Auburn product's days of posting week-winning totals as a fantasy QB1 are over.
Newton's 2021 projection (13 starts): 2,678 passing yards, 16 TDs, 11 INTs
119 carries, 512 rushing yards, 8 TDs, 3 FUMs
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